What is leading what? Oil or the dollar?

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Subject Author Date What is leading what? Oil or the dollar? FrediFizzx 08-07-2008  Re: What is leading what? Oil or the dollar? lubow 08-07-2008  Re: What is leading what? Oil or the dollar? FrediFizzx 08-07-2008  Aero was right! lubow 08-08-2008  Re: Aero was right! jeflin 08-08-2008  Re: What is leading what? Oil or the dollar? Bill Reid 08-08-2008
Posted by FrediFizzx on August 7, 2008, 1:40 pm It seems that now oil going down is bringing the dollar up. So are we sure that the dollar going down was bring oil up? Or was it oil going up that was bringing the dollar down? Sure there are some other factors at play but I'm just talking about the oil / dollar relationship. Fred Posted by lubow on August 7, 2008, 5:20 pm Fred, as we had determined, 1/3 of the crude price is supply and demand driven while the remaining 2/3 is USD devaluation related. Since the crude was up a buck today on a strengthening dollar I would think the commodity was up on inventory concerns. BTW, I still believe that crude below $120 is unsustainable. And yes, our boys in the Treasury and Energy Departments can manipulate the price of crude for the next 90 days, which happens to be the the number of days remaining until Election Day. > It seems that now oil going down is bringing the dollar up. So are we sure > that the dollar going down was bring oil up? Or was it oil going up that was > bringing the dollar down? Sure there are some other factors at play but I'm > just talking about the oil / dollar relationship. > > Fred Posted by FrediFizzx on August 7, 2008, 5:57 pm All we can say with real certainty is that there is an inverse correlation between oil and the dollar over the last several months. I know you think the shrub squad's policies have devalued the dollar which is true but is it really ALL due to that? I'm suspecting that the rise in oil prices did some of the devaluing also instead of the dollar's drop causing oil to go up. IOW, there are some complex economic mechanisms at play here. We can certainly see recently that oil's drop seems to be leading the dollar higher. Fred > Fred, as we had determined, 1/3 of the crude price is supply and demand > driven while the remaining 2/3 is USD devaluation related. Since the > crude was up a buck today on a strengthening dollar I would think the > commodity was up on inventory concerns. BTW, I still believe that crude > below $120 is unsustainable. > > And yes, our boys in the Treasury and Energy Departments can manipulate > the price of crude for the next 90 days, which happens to be the the > number of days remaining until Election Day. > > >> It seems that now oil going down is bringing the dollar up. So are we >> sure that the dollar going down was bring oil up? Or was it oil going up >> that was bringing the dollar down? Sure there are some other factors at >> play but I'm just talking about the oil / dollar relationship. >> >> Fred > Posted by lubow on August 8, 2008, 10:12 am The market is fixed!! I'm short Labor Day EUR and I could see the US Treasury is selling Euros (EUR) like mad. And guess how happens to crude (CL) when the dollar is stronger against the Euro? CL is now in the 116s. I expect this crap to continue until Election Day. Now for part 2: Guess what happens to CL after Election Day! Even "Weed" could have figured this one out if he didn't waste his time talking to minors on the Buffy the Vampire newsgroup. -- Lubow > All we can say with real certainty is that there is an inverse correlation > between oil and the dollar over the last several months. I know you think the > shrub squad's policies have devalued the dollar which is true but is it really > ALL due to that? I'm suspecting that the rise in oil prices did some of the > devaluing also instead of the dollar's drop causing oil to go up. IOW, there > are some complex economic mechanisms at play here. We can certainly see > recently that oil's drop seems to be leading the dollar higher. > > Fred > >> Fred, as we had determined, 1/3 of the crude price is supply and demand >> driven while the remaining 2/3 is USD devaluation related. Since the crude >> was up a buck today on a strengthening dollar I would think the commodity >> was up on inventory concerns. BTW, I still believe that crude below $120 is >> unsustainable. >> >> And yes, our boys in the Treasury and Energy Departments can manipulate the >> price of crude for the next 90 days, which happens to be the the number of >> days remaining until Election Day. >> >> >>> It seems that now oil going down is bringing the dollar up. So are we sure >>> that the dollar going down was bring oil up? Or was it oil going up that >>> was bringing the dollar down? Sure there are some other factors at play but >>> I'm just talking about the oil / dollar relationship. >>> >>> Fred >> > > Posted by jeflin on August 8, 2008, 11:01 am > The market is fixed!! I'm short Labor Day EUR and I could see the US Treasury > is selling Euros (EUR) like mad. And guess how happens to crude (CL) when the > dollar is stronger against the Euro? > > CL is now in the 116s. I expect this crap to continue until Election Day. > > Now for part 2: Guess what happens to CL after Election Day! > > Even "Weed" could have figured this one out if he didn't waste his time talking > to minors on the Buffy the Vampire newsgroup. > > -- Lubow > > > > > All we can say with real certainty is that there is an inverse correlation > > between oil and the dollar over the last several months. I know you think the > > shrub squad's policies have devalued the dollar which is true but is it really > > ALL due to that? I'm suspecting that the rise in oil prices did some of the > > devaluing also instead of the dollar's drop causing oil to go up. IOW, there > > are some complex economic mechanisms at play here. We can certainly see > > recently that oil's drop seems to be leading the dollar higher. > > > Fred > > >> Fred, as we had determined, 1/3 of the crude price is supply and demand > >> driven while the remaining 2/3 is USD devaluation related. Since the crude > >> was up a buck today on a strengthening dollar I would think the commodity > >> was up on inventory concerns. BTW, I still believe that crude below $120 is > >> unsustainable. > > >> And yes, our boys in the Treasury and Energy Departments can manipulate the > >> price of crude for the next 90 days, which happens to be the the number of > >> days remaining until Election Day. > > >>> It seems that now oil going down is bringing the dollar up. So are we sure > >>> that the dollar going down was bring oil up? Or was it oil going up that > >>> was bringing the dollar down? Sure there are some other factors at play but > >>> I'm just talking about the oil / dollar relationship. > > >>> Fred The dollar drop aggravated the situation as commodities are traded in dollars and more profits can be made. Supply and demand is a true fundamental problem for the run-up but a lot of experts predict 1/3 of peak price is due to speculation. And so it has been proven. Oil dipped below $120 and looks to slide further. The demise of Semgroup and Optiver has played a part too. http://jeflin.net Similar Threads Posted Asia Leading Into Monday Opening DOWN HARD!!! October 21, 2007, 8:29 pm leading global forex trading platform November 20, 2007, 10:37 pm HWYI Dividend FAQ, $$2-$$$$4 dollar estimated based on 84 million dollar independent valuation November 2, 2006, 12:12 pm Re: The US dollar continues its decline. Now the Canadian dollar is worth $1.10. November 20, 2007, 8:16 am OCBC's Tanuwidjaja Says Investors Jittery on Oil Prices, Dollar, ``The whole sentiment has turned bearish on emerging market assets. There is jitteriness over oil prices and the dollar June 9, 2008, 10:34 pm Derivitives melt down explained by leading derivitives guru.. his web site is also mentioned. 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