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Posted by Monitor on May 28, 2009, 8:45 am
US Economy May Dip Again Next Year: Roubini
ROUBINI, ECONOMY, US, POLITICS, RECESSION
Reuters | 28 May 2009 | 05:25 AM ET
Nouriel Roubini, the famously glum economist who predicted the
financial crisis, said that while the recession in the United States
may well be over at the end of the year, another dip was still
possible next year.
"I still expect that economic growth in the U.S. is going to be
negative through Q4, and that we'll see positive growth in Q1,"
Roubini told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Seoul
Digital Forum.
"The U.S. recession is going to be U-shaped, lasting roughly 24
months," he added. "Compared to the current consensus that says we are
practically at the end of the recession ... my view is: no, it's going
to last another six to nine months before it's over."
Roubini, who teaches at New York University and heads research firm
RGE Monitor, on had said Wednesday that the end of the global
recession was likely to occur at the end of the year. This spurred
speculation that his outlook had grown more optimistic, a suggestion
denied by him in the interview.
"Because I said the recession is going to be over by year-end, people
say I am an optimist, but I've been saying the same thing for a
while," Roubini said.
"I would say compared to current consensus, I am much more bearish,"
he said. "Compared to other people that say it's going to be a
doomsday, I could be considered an optimist."
Roubini stood by a recent article in which he mentioned the
possibility of a "perfect storm" in 2010.
"There is even a risk of a double dip, a W-shaped recession at the end
of next year," he said, a combination of rising oil prices, rising
public debt and increases in real interest rates, rising concerns
about inflation and the expiration of a number of tax cuts in the
United States
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30976685/
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