Screening & Evaluating Banking Stocks

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Subject Author Date
Screening & Evaluating Banking Stocks Robert Cohen 02-06-2010
Posted by Robert Cohen on February 6, 2010, 2:33 pm


The Texas Ratio is not seemingly not fully adequate

If there were ever a time for risking for large gain, it's now

Bank stock market quotes is another way to tell how the bank is doing

There are lists of failed banks, and these banks (and collapsed
mortgage loan companies)
are in distress, shutdown, merged, while some of them are quoted for
literally pennies per share

I betcha nearly every stock market player has bought some bank and
other financial
company stocks as speculations aka gambles, sort of just the opposite
of what
bank stocks were considered not that long ago

I'd like to buy more, while there are hundreds/thousands of raw
prospects/risks

For instance:

Synovus of Columbus Georgia is a now a $2--$3 stock, MAINLY APPARENTLY
because it has overly loaned to a development project in southeast
Georgia on the Atlantic Ocean

SNV, a regional bank, had been very respected, actually owning many
local banks, but these "branches" apparently semi-autonomously operate
under their well known original trade names

There is a rumor reported (I think) in the ATLANTA BUSINESS CHRONICLE
that
they are dickering around to sell their burden real estate default,
and the stock looks like
it appreciated maybe fifty cents more or less on the report

The point?

Bank stocks are not what they used to be, 'solid as Mt Rushmore'

It's hard to appraise 'em, approx a dozen banks default on their State
and/or FDIC requirements every month

If you got an angle on evaluating bank stocks, fundamentaaly and or
technically, that I may be
able to grasp, then show me the damn money maker

Shorting 'em?

Allegedly, Mr John Paulson made billions shorting the big name brands
(banks & brokers et cetera)

He understood 'em to say the least





Posted by Blash on February 6, 2010, 2:56 pm


Robert Cohen wrote on 2/6/10 2:33 PM:

> Bank stock market quotes is another way to tell how the bank is doing

Doesn't mean a thing......
A small community bank was trading over $200/sh.
After bringing in a "consultant" who discovered what was well-hidden on the
books(loaning money to people so that they could pay interest on their
loans, thus avoiding marking the loans as non-performing), the bank was
1(ONE) week from being closed by the OCC.......
Luckily, they were able to raise a large chunk of cash, reorganized the bank
and the common stockholders were wiped out.......
Play 'em ONLY if you feel like gambling.......


Posted by Robert Cohen on February 6, 2010, 8:02 pm


> Robert Cohen wrote on 2/6/10 2:33 PM:
>
> > Bank stock market quotes is another way to tell how the bank is doing
>
> Doesn't mean a thing......
> A small community bank was trading over $200/sh.
> After bringing in a "consultant" who discovered what was well-hidden on t=
he
> books(loaning money to people so that they could pay interest on their
> loans, thus avoiding marking the loans as non-performing), the bank was
> 1(ONE) week from being closed by the OCC.......
> Luckily, they were able to raise a large chunk of cash, reorganized the b=
ank
> and the common stockholders were wiped out.......
> Play 'em ONLY if you feel like gambling.......

Yes, I certainly tend to agree banks are a book value jungle, and
even the best
CPA minds have trouble evaluating bank balance sheets, otherwise
if bank stocks were truly transparent then the game wouldn't be as
hellaciouly perilous as it is

As Charles Schwab clients would know, Schwab rates stocks ABCDF,
certainly not all
stocks are rated, designated "NR"

These are some seemingly very distressed banks, seemingly near
collapse, with a Schwab C rating,
and I do play a few because here is something (CRBC)
worth the C rating that is selling for less than 75 cents and another
now less than 50 cents (TSFG or TFSG, South Carolina...)

Particularly banks selling for under a dollar per share are in
difficulty, and no matter
what an analyst rates, appraisal must be taken with a shot of whiskey
as evaluating is an
"art" itself that is subject to market dynamics/changes

Any comment about Schwab ratings, which frankly appear prudish/
conservative,
because they do not rate too many penny stocks ?




Posted by Robert Cohen on February 8, 2010, 12:20 pm


>
> > Robert Cohen wrote on 2/6/10 2:33 PM:
>
> > > Bank stock market quotes is another way to tell how the bank is doing
>
> > Doesn't mean a thing......
> > A small community bank was trading over $200/sh.
> > After bringing in a "consultant" who discovered what was well-hidden on=
the
> > books(loaning money to people so that they could pay interest on their
> > loans, thus avoiding marking the loans as non-performing), the bank was
> > 1(ONE) week from being closed by the OCC.......
> > Luckily, they were able to raise a large chunk of cash, reorganized the=
bank
> > and the common stockholders were wiped out.......
> > Play 'em ONLY if you feel like gambling.......
>
> Yes, =A0I certainly tend to agree banks are a book value jungle, and
> even the best
> CPA minds have trouble evaluating bank balance sheets, otherwise
> if bank stocks were truly transparent then the game wouldn't be as
> hellaciouly perilous as it is
>
> As Charles Schwab clients would know, Schwab rates stocks ABCDF,
> certainly not all
> stocks are rated, designated "NR"
>
> These are some seemingly very distressed banks, seemingly near
> collapse, =A0with a Schwab C rating,
> and =A0I do play a few because here is something (CRBC)
> worth the C rating that is selling for less than 75 cents and another
> now less than 50 cents (TSFG or TFSG, South Carolina...)
>
> Particularly =A0banks selling for =A0under a dollar per share are in
> difficulty, and no matter
> what an analyst rates, appraisal must be taken with a shot of whiskey
> as evaluating is an
> "art" itself that is subject to market dynamics/changes
>
> Any comment about Schwab ratings, which frankly appear prudish/
> conservative,
> because they do not rate too many penny stocks =A0?

Correction

TFSG, South Financial, is a D equity rating by Schwab, and a TARP
recipient, their
stock is around forty cents, i am long, i perceive the FDIC would not
shut
them but what the h do i know

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