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Posted by StockContrarian on June 18, 2008, 1:42 am
On Jun 17, 3:12 pm, aeron...@flight.net wrote:
> Friggin' criminal JOKE.....Goldman "beats" by 34%.....Yeah, that was a
> real tough "estimate" wasn't it.....
GS was moderately bearish even before the earning report.
Below is the latest forecast for GS. It appears that some more
price downside remains, and can be expected, in GS stock
FORECASTS ON TICKER SYMBOL: GS (Price: US$25)
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
GS, 20080617, 179.1000, -7.0933, -4.0
GS, 20080616, 182.0000, -10.9488, -6.0
GS, 20080613, 178.2300, -6.8203, -3.8
GS, 20080612, 166.0700, 0.0931, 0.1
GS, 20080611, 162.7000, 3.9508, 2.4
GS, 20080610, 166.7500, 6.0030, 3.6
GS, 20080609, 165.9000, 4.3522, 2.6
GS, 20080606, 169.5000, 0.8677, 0.5
GS, 20080605, 176.9500, -2.6194, -1.5
GS, 20080604, 173.2656, 2.5743, 1.5
GS, 20080603, 170.9400, 3.6624, 2.1
GS, 20080602, 172.1000, 2.2108, 1.3
GS, 20080530, 177.0000, -1.5179, -0.9
GS, 20080529, 176.3000, -2.2125, -1.3
GS, 20080528, 174.6000, 1.5313, 0.9
GS, 20080527, 173.7000, 2.7908, 1.6
GS, 20080523, 172.2900, 6.1635, 3.6
GS, 20080522, 177.3200, 4.5177, 2.5
GS, 20080521, 178.3500, 5.5522, 3.1
GS, 20080520, 182.9500, 3.9451, 2.2
GS, 20080519, 184.5000, 3.4655, 1.9
GS, 20080516, 187.1400, 1.9791, 1.1
GS, 20080515, 188.6400, 2.4230, 1.3
GS, 20080514, 189.7100, -1.1844, -0.6
GS, 20080513, 190.0500, -2.3266, -1.2
GS, 20080512, 192.2000, -1.6257, -0.8
GS, 20080509, 188.1000, 5.8886, 3.1
GS, 20080508, 186.7500, 6.6432, 3.6
GS, 20080507, 190.0000, 6.7460, 3.6
GS, 20080506, 197.4000, 1.4571, 0.7
GS, 20080505, 197.3000, -2.6866, -1.4
GS, 20080502, 200.2700, -4.8734, -2.4
GS, 20080501, 199.0000, -5.8143, -2.9
GS, 20080430, 192.5000, -1.1917, -0.6
GS, 20080429, 191.9000, -2.6449, -1.4
GS, 20080428, 190.0000, -7.3485, -3.9
GS, 20080425, 192.0000, -6.8428, -3.6
GS, 20080424, 188.5000, -4.9200, -2.6
GS, 20080423, 178.2100, 0.9644, 0.5
GS, 20080422, 179.9900, -4.3846, -2.4
GS, 20080421, 180.4000, -7.0475, -3.9
GS, 20080418, 179.9800, -9.2172, -5.1
GS, 20080417, 173.3700, -7.1585, -4.1
GS, 20080416, 169.5700, -2.5067, -1.5
GS, 20080415, 165.8590, 2.3950, 1.4
GS, 20080414, 163.4500, 5.0656, 3.1
GS, 20080411, 167.0000, 6.2201, 3.7
GS, 20080410, 171.0000, 3.7888, 2.2
GS, 20080409, 173.8500, 0.2364, 0.1
GS, 20080408, 180.1500, -2.7129, -1.5
GS, 20080407, 179.4500, -2.2138, -1.2
GS, 20080404, 175.9600, -0.3203, -0.2
GS, 20080403, 176.8000, -8.8147, -5.0
GS, 20080402, 177.0000, -8.1679, -4.6
GS, 20080401, 176.8000, -5.4990, -3.1
GS, 20080331, 163.9000, 5.7537, 3.5
GS, 20080328, 164.7000, 7.7875, 4.7
GS, 20080327, 168.4400, 5.2363, 3.1
GS, 20080326, 174.7500, 2.0893, 1.2
GS, 20080325, 179.3600, -12.0447, -6.7
GS, 20080324, 178.2500, -4.5077, -2.5
GS, 20080320, 179.1500, -25.0492, -14.0
GS, 20080319, 165.5000, -10.8811, -6.6
GS, 20080318, 176.1000, -11.2090, -6.4
GS, 20080317, 150.5800, 4.1152, 2.7
GS, 20080314, 157.9900, 2.5814, 1.6
GS, 20080313, 165.9900, -10.6252, -6.4
GS, 20080312, 162.8000, -4.4370, -2.7
GS, 20080311, 165.6300, -7.5063, -4.5
GS, 20080310, 155.0000, 4.1028, 2.6
GS, 20080307, 159.8000, 1.0462, 0.7
GS, 20080306, 158.6000, 2.2095, 1.4
GS, 20080305, 164.5000, 1.8319, 1.1
GS, 20080304, 163.6000, 6.3833, 3.9
GS, 20080303, 165.2000, 8.0042, 4.8
GS, 20080229, 169.9000, 0.1816, 0.1
GS, 20080228, 176.7800, -2.7082, -1.5
GS, 20080227, 181.0000, -5.2651, -2.9
GS, 20080226, 172.8000, 0.0383, 0.0
GS, 20080225, 176.3000, -0.1098, -0.1
GS, 20080222, 177.1200, -3.4529, -1.9
GS, 20080221, 175.1800, 1.3395, 0.8
GS, 20080220, 177.2600, -2.1092, -1.2
GS, 20080219, 173.5000, 2.7339, 1.6
GS, 20080215, 179.2400, -0.1789, -0.1
GS, 20080214, 176.7500, 3.8221, 2.2
Forecasts are for your informational purposes only.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Forecasts are not trading advice or recommendations.
Always do your own stock research and due diligence.
Be sure to consult qualified investment professionals.
Copyright(C) 2008. All rights reserved worldwide.
*****************************************************
**\ GUIDE TO INTERPRETATION OF FORECAST RESULTS //**
To illustrate how to interpret the data, we'll use
the actual price forecasts for the stock BlackStone
Group, ticker: BX, shown below:
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8
First, you'll notice that there are five(5) columns
as shown above.
As the column headings indicate, the first column
is the ticker symbol (SYMBOL), the next column is
the date (DATE), the third column is the last price
(PRICE), the fourth column is the forecasted
magnitude of future, near-term, price movement
(FORECAST) and the last column (PERCENT) is the
forecasted magnitude of future price movement but
expressed as a percentage (PERCENT) of the closing
price.
It should be obvious that the most important
columns to pay attention to are the FORECAST and
the PERCENTAGE columns, which we'll discuss in more
detail below.
Note that the DATE column is expressed as YYYYMMDD,
which corresponds to the date of the forecast. For
example 20080528 would represent the year 2008, the
month 05 (i.e. May) and the date of month 28. So
20080528 is May 28, 2008. Forecasts are typically
made on the night of the date shown, typically
several hours after the stock market has closed,
and before mid-night, in time for the next day?s
trading.
Let's take a look at the earlier-shown data again:
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8
Using the information we just provided, you can see
that the stock ticker SYMBOL is BX, the DATE of
price forecast was 20080528 or May 28, 2008. The
PRICE was the closing price of $18.6600 (this may
or may not reflect after-hours price) for May 28,
2008, the unit of price being U.S. dollar. This is
then followed by 0.5215 (the unit again being U.S.
dollar) which means that the stock BX is forecasted
to likely move up by $0.5215 in the near term.
The time frame for the fulfillment of the
forecasted future price movement is typically
several days, occasionally more than one or two
weeks, or even longer. The last column shows that
the expected price movement of $0.5215 is
equivalent to an upside movement of 2.8%:
i.e. PERCENT =3D 100 X (FORECAST / PRICE) =3D 2.8
Where the FORECAST shows a negative number, it
means the direction of the forecasted future price
movement is down, with the magnitude indicated by
the value of the negative number. Naturally, the
PERCENT figure will also be negative, to indicate
downside, rather than upside, future price movement.
Conversely, if the FORECAST shows a positive number,
as is the case for BX on May 28, 2008, it means the
forecasted future price movement is up, with the
magnitude indicated by the value of the positive
number. In this case, the PERCENT figure will be
positive, to reflect upside, rather than downside,
future price movement.
For better trading results, one should consult past
forecasts for the same stock, and these are
typically provided, going back several months. A
quick review of past forecasts provides a better
grasp of the significance of the latest, current
forecast. The reason is that by simply looking at
past forecasts, one can quickly see where the past
short-term price tops and bottoms were and the
corresponding past forecast readings (i.e. FORECAST
and PERCENT values) at those important junctures.
The current, latest FORECAST and PERCENT can then
be mentally compared to those past extreme values
to see if the current readings are at or near those
past extremes. If not, one may choose to wait a
while, in case the readings becomes more extreme in
the coming days, before taking action. Knowing
whether to wait helps avoid acting too soon, and
tends to improve trading performance while reducing
risk.
Now, let's take a look at the past forecasts for BX
(shown below):
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8
BX, 20080527, 18.9100, 0.4243, 2.2
BX, 20080523, 18.5400, 1.4067, 7.6
BX, 20080522, 19.1600, 0.7023, 3.7
BX, 20080521, 19.3300, 0.4556, 2.4
BX, 20080520, 20.5900, 0.1384, 0.7
BX, 20080519, 20.2300, -0.3795, -1.9
BX, 20080516, 20.0200, -0.5328, -2.7
BX, 20080515, 20.6500, -0.9681, -4.7
BX, 20080514, 19.5000, -0.1523, -0.8
BX, 20080513, 19.0500, -0.1559, -0.8
BX, 20080512, 18.9700, 0.2627, 1.4
BX, 20080509, 19.2700, 0.1482, 0.8
BX, 20080508, 18.8000, 0.5186, 2.8
BX, 20080507, 19.3500, 0.6359, 3.3
BX, 20080506, 19.4700, -0.0480, -0.2
BX, 20080505, 19.5600, -0.6820, -3.5
BX, 20080502, 20.2600, -0.9183, -4.5
BX, 20080501, 19.4500, -0.3195, -1.6
BX, 20080430, 18.6000, 0.3533, 1.9
BX, 20080429, 18.8100, -0.1200, -0.6
BX, 20080428, 18.9500, -0.2970, -1.6
BX, 20080425, 19.1800, -0.2541, -1.3
BX, 20080424, 18.5000, 0.0192, 0.1
BX, 20080423, 18.3300, 0.3143, 1.7
BX, 20080422, 18.6200, -0.1133, -0.6
BX, 20080421, 18.6800, -0.6790, -3.6
BX, 20080418, 19.0100, -1.0060, -5.3
BX, 20080417, 18.6800, -0.8970, -4.8
BX, 20080416, 17.7000, 0.0543, 0.3
BX, 20080415, 17.3300, 0.5899, 3.4
BX, 20080414, 17.2016, 0.8348, 4.9
BX, 20080411, 17.7500, 0.5165, 2.9
A quick glance of the above forecast history for BX
shows that in the past when the PERCENT is close to
or greater than 5% or the FORECAST more positive
than $0.80, it suggests prices are bottoming and a
future price rise may be imminent.
On the other hand, if the PERCENT is -4.5% or more
negative, or the FORECAST is about -$0.90 or even
more negative, then it indicates prices are likely
peaking, and a price drop could be imminent.
Not that each stock has its own peculiarities as to
what FORECAST and PERCENT readings are extreme. An
extreme FORECAST or PERCENT reading for one stock
may be too extreme, or not be extreme enough, if
applied to another stock. Therefore, the history
of past forecasts for a particular stock should be
reviewed on its own, independent of other stocks.
Even the same stock may change over time as to what
constitute extreme readings for FORECAST and
PERCENT. It is advisable to review the most recent
forecasts first and then go back to older forecasts,
to detect any gradual changes in extreme values.
Such historic forecast review takes only a few
seconds, but it will save a lot of wondering and
guessing, and will very likely improve your
decision-making and performance. Forecast history
review will help make your timing a lot more
accurate and profitable.
Some people, on first impression, think the
forecast is for the very next day. It is not so.
Most of the time, a FORECAST may take two or many
more days to fulfill.
Occasionally, it only takes just one or two days to
reach the price change forecasted. It really
depends on the particular stock and its special
situation.
There are times the forecasts won't be right, or
won't be realized. Perfection is not possible.
It is usually advisable to wait for extreme
readings, even though that by itself is not a
guarantee of profit. Such patient approach, with a
willingness to wait, is usually much safer and
more rewarding in the long run. This is especially
true for beginners or those who have only a modest
amount of risk capital.
Unless one is extremely experienced and/or has a
very large portfolio, it is usually not advisable
to play minor or moderate FORECAST and PERCENT
readings. That is not to say that mild or moderate
readings are always not profitable, because they
can be. Should one decide to trade on weak
FORECAST and PERCENT readings, on should definitely
limit his/her risk by committing much less risk
capital than when the readings are near the
extremes.
As mentioned earlier, important price tops and
bottoms usually, but not always, correspond to
extreme negative and positive readings.
Some stocks are "better behaved" than others, or
"better behaved" at one time than another. If you
find a stock behaving poorly with respect to the
price forecasts, then do not trade it, or at least
avoid it, but find another stock that is "better
behaved".
It is usually not advisable to trade against the
forecasts, especially when the FORECAST and PERCENT
readings are strong, i.e. at or near their extremes.
In other words, very bullish readings mean that one
should probably cover or close out bearish
positions, and possibly go long. Conversely, do
the opposite for extremely bearish readings, i.e.
take profit or liquidate bullish positions, and
possibly go short.
Before using any of the forecasts, read the above
detailed explanation first. If there is anything
you do not fully understand, read it again
carefully. If after 3 times' careful reading, you
still don't fully understand, then and only then
send us an email and explain in detail what part
you do not understand.
Our email address is: ForecastS.Com@gmail.com
**************************************************
FOR LATEST FORECASTS GO TO: HTTP://FORECASTS.COM
**************************************************
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FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VISIT: HTTP://FORECASTS.COM
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*** \ ABOVE STOCK FORECASTS WERE SPONSORED BY // ***
Our Advertising Sponsor: DOMAIN NAME: AusScape.Com
The sponsor prepaid part or all of the regular price
of US$25, significantly reducing your final price.
If a particular stock forecast is FREE, the Sponsor
has prepaid and assumed for you all your cost.
NOTE:
An eBay auction for AusScape.Com is scheduled to
begin on Thursday evening, June 19, 2008 at 6:00 p.m.
PST and to end 10 days later on Sunday evening, June
29, 2008. So, be sure to make a note of those dates,
and do plan on participating. You don't have to be
the top winning bidder to win HUGE REWARDS.
PLACE A BID AND WIN 40 FORECASTS (US$1,000 VALUE):
That's right, EVERY bidder is a winner here simply
for having placed a bid, no matter how early or low
his/her bid. You're guaranteed a win of these very
valuable forecast simply for having placed one bid.
EVERY bidder will receive a special password to
access 40 interesting stock situations, both long
and short candidates. It doesn't matter how low
your rank is during the auction, you've won. That's
right, just for having placed one bid, you'll be
entitled to receive FREE price forecasts on 40
stocks. We'll send you your password by email to
access those 40 stock forecasts. Value: US$1,000
There are stupendous benefits, i.e. HUGE REWARDS,
if you bid high enough and end up being one of the
top three bidders at the conclusion of the auction.
*** HUGE REWARDS *** just for participating in the
eBay auction (June 19, 2008 to June 29, 2008), and
becoming one of the top three bidders:
The top 3 bidders at the conclusion of the bidding
will each receive a special password that allows
him/her to access the coming Friday's stock price
forecasts on 1,000 stocks (a US$25,000 VALUE).
Said Friday forecasts will be delivered to the top 3
bidders the following day, i.e. Saturday, so there
will be plenty of time for the top 3 bidders to use
the forecasts for the following week's trading.
If you're one of the top 33 bidders but failed to
make the top three, you'll still receive GREAT
REWARDS. Instead of 40 stock forecasts, you'll get
200 stock forecasts, or 5 times as many as the
rest, lower-ranked bidders. (Value: US$5,000). So,
as long as you've placed a bid, you'll win at least
US$1,000 worth of stock forecasts.
******************************************************
INTROUDUCTION TO THE VALUE OF THE DOMAIN NAME:
AusScape.Com
SEMANTIC SIGNIFICANCE:
"Aus" means Australia or Australian. "Scape" has
multiple favorable meaning including landscape,
scenery, scene or view, and last but not least, escape.
AusScape.Com therefore brings forth romantic travel
yearnings, certainly including a pleasant escape to
beautiful Australia. The domain name is both status-
and action-focused, and thus very business- and
profit-friendly in terms of inducing favorable
consumer behavior.
This unique, catchy, brandable domain possesses
multiple, excellent, informative and synergistic mind-
share meanings and valuable subliminal message. This
means that it can be utilized from various
perspectives, from multiple mental and emotional
dimensions and in diverse, but related areas of e-
commerce and web activities. Accordingly, the value
of the domain increases greatly and proportionally as
a result of such multiple applications potential.
RELEVANT BENCHMARK PRICE:
TourismAustralia.Com sold for AU$201,000.
See: http://tinyurl.com/4mrxno
(Note: Currency rates fluctuate. One Australian
dollar is around one U.S. dollar.)
Comparison to Benchmark, and Analysis:
In comparison to TourismAustralia.Com, AusScape.Com is
a much shorter and sweeter, more multi-purpose, domain.
As mentioned earlier, AusScape.Com delivers a highly
beneficial, romantic and subliminal travel message
that TourismAustralia.Com lacks.
WEBSITE ADVANTAGES & BENEFITS:
Top-level, dot-com domain, the most desirable;
Generic and private-branding properties and values co-
exist.
Multiple Uses: Travel industry e-business, travel
services and products;
Muitiple Fields of Application: Travel, tourism, tours,
cruises, art, culture, information, discussion, etc.
Potential Customer Population: Global tourists and
travelers (several hundred millions of active tourists
worldwide)
Utility:
--- Business Angle
--- Social Angle
--- Community Angle
Revenue Sources:
Services,
Products,
Advertising,
Agency Commission Fees,
--- Affliate Links (Sales Commissions)
--- Referral Fees
Membership Fees
Features:
Major tourist attractions
Promotional tour packages and other specials
Bookings for transportation, hotels, restaurants,
events.
Sale of travel aids, souvenirs, books, etc.
Galleries
Various travel services and products.
Functions:
Service & Product Offerings: Information, photos,
advice, guidance, etc.
Order Taking and Shopping Cart:
Payment Gateways: Credit cards, Paypal, etc.
Discussion & Messages: Forum for community building
and social interaction
Website Developmental Directions:
E-commerce, information source, advertising,
membership community
INDUSTRY GROWTH TRENDS:
The business area AusScape.Com targets is a huge,
strongly surging travel and tourism market, enjoying a
particularly bright, fast-growth future. AusScape.Com,
both as a domain or as a developed business website,
should therefore enjoy tremendous upside appreciation
for the foreseeable future. The cost of acquiring
AusScape.Com would be relatively trivial and
insignificant in comparison, being a great investment
with expected high price appreciation and commercial
and business profitability.
DISCUSSION:
AusScape.Com is a top-notch, short and sweet,
ingeniously well-meaning domain name that is
invaluable for developing a profitable travel business
and for private branding, among other web applications.
AusScape.Com as a website or portal possesses enormous,
profitable, travel-related e-business, people, art,
culture and other geographic, informational potentials.
Besides obvious, broad e-commerce application and
utility in the areas of tourism and travel, related
accommodations and bookings, AusScape.Com is also
ideal as a web art gallery that shows, presents and
introduces the beautiful sceneries, people and culture
of Australia. Of course, a synergistic combination
of both a travel web site and aforesaid web art
gallery will further increase web traffic and greatly
boost business by attracting and motivating lots of
website visitors and would-be tourists to physically
experience beautiful, pristine Australia.
A domain name such as AusScape.Com has high intrinsic
value when by itself it delivers a very powerful
marketing, promotional and advertising meaning and
message. The domain name AusScape.Com readily brings
forth excellent, multiple profitable applications in
the areas of e-commerce, in services and products
offerings, promotion, sales and delivery, important
commercial and non-commercial information delivery,
additional revenues via PPC (Pay Per Click) and
affiliate commission links on referrals and sales, fee
and non-fee client memberships, as web traffic and
advertising portal, and for synergistic mind-share
positioning. AusScape.Com can thus be commercialized
and monetized from various angles and revenue channels,
from multiple dimensions of e-commerce and web
activities. Accordingly, the commercial value and
profitability of such a domain is exceptional. Being
in a major and growth industry, the business potential
of AusScape.Com is huge and extremely bullish.
CONCLUSION:
As shown above, this is a great, limited-time
opportunity to own a unique, highly prized, and
brandable, services- and products-oriented top-level,
dot-com domain name of tremendous e-commerce,
advertisement and other e-business potential. This
invaluable domain is currently made available to you
at a tremendous bargain and steep discount when
compared to benchmark.
RECOMMENDATION:
If you would like to own this unique, highly prized
and brandable domain as an appreciating asset in
itself and as a future e-commerce website, then you
certainly should acquire it now without hesitation or
delay while the opportunity window is still open. Be
sure to put your bid in early to win, and do it before
other smart and visionary investors take notice and
outbid you. Do not miss this great, limited-time
opportunity to own AusScape.Com for a fraction of the
price that the much longer and more limited domain
name, TourismAustralia.Com, had sold for. ($201,000)
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