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Posted by Lawyerkill on August 30, 2008, 8:09 am
>
>
>
>
>
> > Changing the subj... Sorry you're getting screwed with you speculation =
based on
> > oil prices impacted byhurricane/tropstorm Gustav.
>
> > Sometimes the most successful strategy is to fade the press. The bigger=
the
> > story, the more they're wrong. TV news worked OT telling us that the hu=
ndreds
> > of rigs in the Gulf that supply 25% of the US's oil requirements are in
> > jeopardy. TV took it one step further and speculated that gasoline pric=
es will
> > reflect the drop in production.
>
> > What TV forgot was to simply ask an oil trader at the NY Merc. Most tra=
ders
> > there will tell you that no pro, in view of the current downward trend =
in crude,
> > would want to be long crude at $118 or so during a three day weekend. T=
he
> > speculators Mr. Comics loves to blame for the failures of others are se=
lling
> > their positions or even shorting.
>
> > Thus far, crude is breaking even with yesterday's close. I'm looking fo=
r it to
> > be a buck or two down when trading closes this afternoon. By time the O=
ctober
> > crude closes out in three weeks, oil could be below $110 with the usual=
caveats
> > of no further hurricanes and no further brinksmanship on the diplomatic=
front.
>
> > All bets are off after Halloween.
>
> > --Lubow.
>
> > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>
> I think the market is headed down in Sept.. For me thehurricanewas
> an extra push, but even barring thehurricanefactor I still think the
> DOW is going lower. Most likely GG is going to level off or drop if
> thehurricanedoesn't hit the oil rigs in a big way so I'm selling my
> Calls on it today, maybe in the next 10 minutes.
>
> I think low oil=3Dlow gold for now.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
The market is lucky that this hurricane is not hitting during the
week. Fear would have moved the stocks a lot more. By the time the
market opens next week we will know how much damage was done and the
fear level will be way down I think.
Sept is a bad month for stocks so I still think they are headed for a
losing month and recover in Nov.
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