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Investment in Stocks - Forum for sharing info about stocks and options.
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Posted by http://www.mystockpicks.tk on June 25, 2008, 12:28 am
Extract posted 23 June 2008
"Last Friday was a busy day for the oil market. So much happened, it=92s
worth taking another look at how the events of the day affected prices
and oil=92s outlook.
Actually, to set the stage for Friday, we have to go back one more day
=96 to Thursday when China held the spotlight.
Dateline Thursday 9:00. Crude stretches above $137.50 on dollar
weakness. It had been going down following a high on Monday when it
almost kissed $140.
Dateline Thursday 15:00. Crude falls as word filters out that China is
lowering its oil subsidies for the first time since last November.
Dateline Friday 8:00: The price of crude rose on overnight trading =96
mostly on dollar weakness. Americans wake up to see crude already over
$134.
Dateline Friday 8:00=9611:00. An orgy of news hits the fan. First, word
from Nigeria that an offshore production vessel had been attacked.
Royal Dutch Shell immediately suspends export obligations of its Bonga
crude oil for the remainder of June plus July.
Then the New York Times reports that Israel ran a practice drill
simulating a bombing attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Next we
hear that Chevron is unable to negotiate an end to the labor dispute
in its Nigerian operations. Wall Street is left to wonder how much of
the 350,000 barrels a day Chevron produces there will be affected.
China=92s lowering of subsidies gets more nuanced treatment one day
after the news first broke. It=92s now seen as more mixed. Free to raise
prices, it=92s now expected that oil companies and retailers will be
rushing oil products to market. Instead of decreasing, oil imports
could increase. Initially greeted the day before as the kind of news
that could ease crude supply concerns, China=92s price action is seen in
a more neutral light as the day progresses.
Dateline 11:00 =96 14:00. The talking heads take over. The =93what would
happen if...=94 discussions dominate the afternoon news cycle. =93What
would happen if Saudi Arabia announces an oil production increase at
the Jeddah Summit on Sunday?=94 =93What would happen if Shell can=92t
protect its deepwater operations?=94 And so on. With a little
perspective, the market settles down in the afternoon.
Dateline 13:00. I=92m dragged into Fox TV studios and asked the most
explosive =93what if=94 of the day: =93What would happen to the price of oi=
l
if Israel attacked Iran?=94 Gee, thanks Fox. =93Would prices go over $140
per barrel?=94 =93Without a doubt,=94 I say. =93$150?=94 =93Yes.=94 =93$160=
?=94 Most
likely.=94 =93$170?=94 =93It=92s possible.=94
That scenario, my friends, would be the equivalent of a full-on,
blaring red-alert day. Is that day coming? Thankfully I wasn=92t asked
that question. But I will say this much. I can=92t see Israel allowing
Iran to develop nuclear capabilities.
It=92s the hurricane season. Oil supply is always at its most vulnerable
during hurricane season. This year, however, it=92s the political
hurricanes that threaten to do all the damage.
Invest well,
Andrew Gordon"
for complete article do visit: www.ezycash.tk "Article Page"
Disclaimer...The subject matter expressed above is based purely on
technical analysis and personal opinions of the writer. it is not a
solicitation to buy or sell.
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