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Posted by Doobie Keebler on February 5, 2008, 12:44 pm
On Feb 5, 8:42 am, com...@webtv.net wrote:
> probably just a college kid who gets paid 8 bucks an hour
> by some short selling hedge fund manage to bash the market
Darn those $8 per hour college kids!
Darn them all to heck!
. d
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Posted by BuffettHater@gmail.com on February 5, 2008, 1:18 pm
> On Feb 5, 8:42 am, com...@webtv.net wrote:
>
> > probably just a college kid who gets paid 8 bucks an hour
> > by some short selling hedge fund manage to bash the market
>
> Darn those $8 per hour college kids!
>
> Darn them all to heck!
>
> . d
LOL, that's why comics is the niight manager at krispey kreme's
pickled port nuts department and i am just a low paid short seller,
lol.
What's up with Youtube today?
Trying to download 'Throw the Jew Down the Well" by Borat and its all
jammed up??? Guess its the fund managers downloading the song too....
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Posted by BuffettHater@gmail.com on February 5, 2008, 9:49 pm
>
> Doobie / Dirt... sooo, what do we invest in, with a "mild" recession?
> If real conservative... bonds, bond funds, treasuries, cd's. I read
> some are suggesting the financials... hmmm. Others suggest basic
> materials and commodity driven stocks. Others remind us to get out of
> tech. Still others suggest consumer staples, for which i remember
> that they did well in the last several recessionary periods. I'll
> stick to the commodity driven stocks. Suppose Jerry will go the
> financial route. What will y'all do?
Sell short. take anything that loser of the year comic invests in and
short it,
guaranteed big money maker.
comic was big on tyson opening a hog facility in china. Cheaper boar
penises for him to feed his family.
To make big money, read comics advise on raising hogs, he is a self
made breeder of boars.
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Posted by Doobie Keebler on February 5, 2008, 9:57 pm
On Feb 5, 7:43 pm, kathy...@msn.com wrote:
> If real conservative... bonds, bond funds, treasuries, cd's.
The short term outlook for fixed rate US dollar bonds is dire.
Three factors, accelerating inflation, a sharp rise in short term
interest rates and an exploding budget deficit, all make them likely
to slump in price in the next 12-18 months. What of the medium or long
term? Is there a chance that a 3.6% 10 year Treasury bond, however
battered in the next year or two, might come to be seen as a good
investment before its maturity?
There are three underlying trends that suggest that long term US
Treasury bonds may be an even worse investment in the long term than
in the short term. Combined, they suggest that a junk-level credit
rating for the US government may be appropriate.
First, there is the social security system, which has been providing
over $100 billion per annum towards plugging the deficit gap in the
last few years, but is about to stop doing so and then after 2017
swing into sharp deficit. Contrary to Washington belief, this problem
will be exacerbated by a continued high immigration of younger, less
skilled people. Since poorer people require more services and pay
relatively less into the social security system than rich people, the
actuarial deficit will worsen, and it will become clear that the young
and foreign-born are paying relatively heavy taxes in order to
support a large retired native-born cohort with most of whom they have
no genetic, ethnic or cultural links. Inevitably the political process
will at that stage function in order to relieve these younger voters
of their substantial net obligations, almost certainly requiring
further heavy government borrowing.
The second actuarial problem is Medicare, whose costs are increasing
considerably faster than Gross Domestic Product and have been for many
years. Theoretically, this problem could be solved by delaying
eligibility for Medicare sufficiently that its books balanced - after
all the medical advances that cost so much are increasing human
lifespans and health. In practice, it is almost certainly not possible
to do this quickly enough, in that by the time the problem has been
fully recognized the lump of retired beneficiaries will have
overwhelmed the system, and it will be impossible to make them "un-
retire." Here the political omens of 2008 are for a further worsening
of the situation. The Medicare fix promised by the Democrat candidates
would increase costs more than revenues, thus worsening the actuarial
position, as well as removing the opportunity to solve the program's
problem by delaying the eligibility age - if all are eligible, there
will be no escape from the system's vast costs.
Finally there is the problem of the migration of an increasing
proportion of US jobs to the Third World, and the consequent future
decline in US relative living standards and very likely in absolute
living standards. Moreover, emerging markets now possess an increasing
proportion of the world's capital. Thus even in a period of tighter
money, when the US capital cost advantage would have been a most
salient competitive factor, the transfer of manufacturing and high-
level service jobs will not be reversed, or even greatly slowed.
.
.
The short answer: I have no problem sitting on cash while the VIX is
+25.
But, it's tempting: with volatility like this, it's a great time to
swing DDM/DXD, QLD/QID, and SSO/SDS, if you have the nerve.
Tell yourself "It's ok, they're just index ETF's" and it won't seem so
spoo- spoo- spoo- spooky.
. d
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