Bear still growling

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Subject Author Date Bear still growling Don Tiberone 08-04-2008  Re: Teddy Bear still growling FrediFizzx 08-04-2008  Re: Teddy Bear still growling Uncle_vito 08-04-2008  Re: Teddy Bear still growling FrediFizzx 08-04-2008  Re: Bear still growling d. 08-04-2008  Re: Bear still growling Doobie Keebler 08-04-2008
Posted by Don Tiberone on August 4, 2008, 1:20 am http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/financials/story.html?id=693231 Bear still growling Mark Deriet, Financial Post Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008 U. S. financial stocks have staged a significant rally off their lows. They recently had the largest single-day gain since the U. S. financials index was created in 1990, with the index surging 12% on July 16. Large single-day gains are characteristic of bear market rallies. In fact, nine of the top 20 of the largest single-day gains on the U. S. financials index have occurred in 2008. How does this compare with past bear markets? Well, for the Nasdaq index, 19 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since 1990 occurred after its peak in March, 2000, during the tech bust of 2000-02. For the Nikkei index, 17 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since inception in 1970 occurred after the January, 1990, peak, when the Asian meltdown was in full swing. As for the Dow index during the Depression years of 1929-33, all of the largest 20 rallies occurred after the September, 1929, peak. So what does this say about the rally in U. S. financials in the current market? With oil in a corrective phase, U. S. financials could enjoy a further near-term rally. But, given the history of bear markets, there's good reason to remain cautious. We have only witnessed nine of the largest 20 single-day gains so far, so the technical evidence suggests we may have only reached the halfway point of the bear market in U. S. financials. Posted by FrediFizzx on August 4, 2008, 2:34 am They forgot to mention that markets coming off lows like we have had also tend to go back up quite rapidly. ;-) Well, we know what happened with the financials getting a boost from the SEC. Massive short covering is what that was/is. I suspect this teddy bear is definitely going to be around for a while longer. Fred > http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/financials/story.html?id=693231 > > Bear still growling > > Mark Deriet, Financial Post Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008 > > U. S. financial stocks have staged a significant rally off their > lows. > They recently had the largest single-day gain since the U. S. > financials index was created in 1990, with the index surging 12% on > July 16. Large single-day gains are characteristic of bear market > rallies. In fact, nine of the top 20 of the largest single-day gains > on the U. S. financials index have occurred in 2008. > > How does this compare with past bear markets? Well, for the Nasdaq > index, 19 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since 1990 occurred > after its peak in March, 2000, during the tech bust of 2000-02. For > the Nikkei index, 17 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since > inception in 1970 occurred after the January, 1990, peak, when the > Asian meltdown was in full swing. As for the Dow index during the > Depression years of 1929-33, all of the largest 20 rallies occurred > after the September, 1929, peak. > > So what does this say about the rally in U. S. financials in the > current market? With oil in a corrective phase, U. S. financials > could > enjoy a further near-term rally. But, given the history of bear > markets, there's good reason to remain cautious. We have only > witnessed nine of the largest 20 single-day gains so far, so the > technical evidence suggests we may have only reached the halfway > point > of the bear market in U. S. financials. Posted by Uncle_vito on August 4, 2008, 8:12 am That is why I wouldn't play the short position in this market. I quit trading about a year ago and went into a hold mode. The shorts covering have been why the market has had such sudden runups that seem to last a few days. If the short think that the long term trend is down, they should not try to cover during the runups. They just get their timing all off. They cover too late then reestablish their shorts too late. Impossible to predict the direction of the market day to day or hour to hour. Vito > They forgot to mention that markets coming off lows like we have had also > tend to go back up quite rapidly. ;-) Well, we know what happened with > the financials getting a boost from the SEC. Massive short covering is > what that was/is. I suspect this teddy bear is definitely going to be > around for a while longer. > > Fred > >> http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/financials/story.html?id=693231 >> >> Bear still growling >> >> Mark Deriet, Financial Post Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008 >> >> U. S. financial stocks have staged a significant rally off their lows. >> They recently had the largest single-day gain since the U. S. >> financials index was created in 1990, with the index surging 12% on >> July 16. Large single-day gains are characteristic of bear market >> rallies. In fact, nine of the top 20 of the largest single-day gains >> on the U. S. financials index have occurred in 2008. >> >> How does this compare with past bear markets? Well, for the Nasdaq >> index, 19 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since 1990 occurred >> after its peak in March, 2000, during the tech bust of 2000-02. For >> the Nikkei index, 17 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since >> inception in 1970 occurred after the January, 1990, peak, when the >> Asian meltdown was in full swing. As for the Dow index during the >> Depression years of 1929-33, all of the largest 20 rallies occurred >> after the September, 1929, peak. >> >> So what does this say about the rally in U. S. financials in the >> current market? With oil in a corrective phase, U. S. financials could >> enjoy a further near-term rally. But, given the history of bear >> markets, there's good reason to remain cautious. We have only >> witnessed nine of the largest 20 single-day gains so far, so the >> technical evidence suggests we may have only reached the halfway point >> of the bear market in U. S. financials. > > Posted by FrediFizzx on August 4, 2008, 2:21 pm I'm in buying mode for long term positions but being very patient about it. ;-) This market is pretty fragile and it might not take much to bring it down some more. One of the experienced traders on CNBC last week said he was very surprised that the DJIA wasn't at 10K. Lots of resistance at the 11K level to go below that. Fred > That is why I wouldn't play the short position in this market. I > quit trading about a year ago and went into a hold mode. The shorts > covering have been why the market has had such sudden runups that > seem to last a few days. If the short think that the long term > trend is down, they should not try to cover during the runups. They > just get their timing all off. They cover too late then reestablish > their shorts too late. > > Impossible to predict the direction of the market day to day or hour > to hour. > > Vito > > >> They forgot to mention that markets coming off lows like we have >> had also tend to go back up quite rapidly. ;-) Well, we know what >> happened with the financials getting a boost from the SEC. Massive >> short covering is what that was/is. I suspect this teddy bear is >> definitely going to be around for a while longer. >> >> Fred >> >>> http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/financials/story.html?id=693231 >>> >>> Bear still growling >>> >>> Mark Deriet, Financial Post Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008 >>> >>> U. S. financial stocks have staged a significant rally off their >>> lows. >>> They recently had the largest single-day gain since the U. S. >>> financials index was created in 1990, with the index surging 12% >>> on >>> July 16. Large single-day gains are characteristic of bear market >>> rallies. In fact, nine of the top 20 of the largest single-day >>> gains >>> on the U. S. financials index have occurred in 2008. >>> >>> How does this compare with past bear markets? Well, for the Nasdaq >>> index, 19 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since 1990 occurred >>> after its peak in March, 2000, during the tech bust of 2000-02. >>> For >>> the Nikkei index, 17 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since >>> inception in 1970 occurred after the January, 1990, peak, when the >>> Asian meltdown was in full swing. As for the Dow index during the >>> Depression years of 1929-33, all of the largest 20 rallies >>> occurred >>> after the September, 1929, peak. >>> >>> So what does this say about the rally in U. S. financials in the >>> current market? With oil in a corrective phase, U. S. financials >>> could >>> enjoy a further near-term rally. But, given the history of bear >>> markets, there's good reason to remain cautious. We have only >>> witnessed nine of the largest 20 single-day gains so far, so the >>> technical evidence suggests we may have only reached the halfway >>> point >>> of the bear market in U. S. financials. >> >> > > > Posted by d. on August 4, 2008, 12:52 pm >http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/financials/story.html?id=693231 > >Bear still growling > >Mark Deriet, Financial Post Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008 > >U. S. financial stocks have staged a significant rally off their lows. >They recently had the largest single-day gain since the U. S. >financials index was created in 1990, with the index surging 12% on >July 16. Large single-day gains are characteristic of bear market >rallies. In fact, nine of the top 20 of the largest single-day gains >on the U. S. financials index have occurred in 2008. > >How does this compare with past bear markets? Well, for the Nasdaq >index, 19 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since 1990 occurred >after its peak in March, 2000, during the tech bust of 2000-02. For >the Nikkei index, 17 of the largest 20 single-day rallies since >inception in 1970 occurred after the January, 1990, peak, when the >Asian meltdown was in full swing. As for the Dow index during the >Depression years of 1929-33, all of the largest 20 rallies occurred >after the September, 1929, peak. > >So what does this say about the rally in U. S. financials in the >current market? With oil in a corrective phase, U. S. financials could >enjoy a further near-term rally. But, given the history of bear >markets, there's good reason to remain cautious. We have only >witnessed nine of the largest 20 single-day gains so far, so the >technical evidence suggests we may have only reached the halfway point >of the bear market in U. S. financials. I'm not sure of the connection between oil and financials, but it looks to me like the bull in oil is over. Storms, closed ship channel, refinery explosion, bad vibes from Iran, and oil is still down big. During the bull that would have driven prices up $5 or more a bbl. Just a little fog used to drive it up several dollars. Recession is going to kill oil and most all commodities. It always does. And this recession is beginning to look like it may be longer, deeper, and more worldwide before it's over than at least I have been expecting. I did post here last fall I thought we were in a recession and bear market and I haven't changed my mind. As far as Mr Market goes, it just seems like we can't get a real big fear-based capitulation type selloff to mark a real bottom. The other kind is a long, boring, water-torture type of drawn- out affair. Similar Threads Posted Cramer on Bear Stearns last tuesday - "Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they're more likely to be taken over. 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