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Posted by ps56k on August 14, 2008, 10:52 am
David wrote:
>> received our Fidelity investor's news bulletin -
>> One of the articles had a different kind of fund,
>> the Fidelity Independenc - FDFFX -http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fdffx
>>
>> looking for a potential exchange
>> from my existing Equity Income - FEQIX -
>>
>> --
>> ----------------------------------
>> "If everything seems to be going well,
>> you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright
>
> Have you looked at the chart for FDFFX? The NAV, or price, has risen
> for 5 years but has peaked and is now in decline. Adverse, bearish, TA
> signals include a) The price is below a declining 200-day SMA b) The
> 30 week MA has just crossed below the 50-week MA. c) I don't usually
> follow patterns but it looks like a clear double top with peaks in
> November and June. d) The price peaked in June and is now down 16%
> which would have triggered a range of possible trailing stop losses
> including 10%, 12% and 15%.
>
> If you look at world events and trends, commodity prices have peaked
> and are declining so it is not surprising that FDFFX is going down
> with them.
>
> How many signals do you need? You are 5 years too late for FDFFX.
>
> FEQIX looks even worse as it is 28% down from its October peak and
> still in decline. You should have sold this one in Oct at 60.26 when
> it dropped below its 200-day SMA, down just 4.5% and saved yourself
> the further 25% drop to 45!
Having just read about the FDFFX fund,
it was interesting because it did not have
a fixed investment style or class....
and in fact years ago it was called Retirement Growth.
Yes - you are right - as you've mentioned previously...
a lot of my funds are way down below their 200 average.
Looking at each one like this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FDFFX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=
or
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FEQIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=
I have not yet seen any auto-alert system to trigger
when a stock or fund falls below a specific "dynamic" price/nav target
vs setting a fixed price stop order or alert.
Also - stocks & ETF's in a brokerage account support these stop orders, or
alerts,
but have not seen this avail in my Vanguard, Fidelity, or TRowe mutual fund
accounts,
or my Quicken software.
Have you seen something like this - that is "dynamic" to follow a 200 EMA ?
or do you just manually look at each fund to track it ?
As I've shared here over the years -
I started with Vanguard Windsor as my main fund core holding,
and then started moving into other areas as they appeared on the radar.
Each account has around $25k or more.... Windsor being the original has
more.
I'm not a short horizon trader, and the October 2007 fall did not make
me want to sell everything into cash...
so yeah, looking back, it's like the 2001 tech bubble crash.
At this point, I'm holding what I "thought" was a diversified portfolio
that would balance out and compensate for any major dips.
But it turns out - with the financial stocks - that almost all the funds had
them.
Here's the current mix - and yes - I probably should have exchanged most
when they fell below their 200 EMA - but....
Global -
VGTSX blend
FDIVX growth
VTRIX value
Growth, Income, Value
(IRA) -- FDGRX growth, FFIDX g/i, FEQIX e/i, FFNOX (idx),
(non-IRA) -- VWNEX g/i, VTSAX (idx),
VIMSX (mid), JAVLX,
Sector -
PRHSX health, PRMTX media, PRNEX resources, PRNHX small
Asia, Emerging, Latin -
(IRA) -- FSEAX asia, FEMKX emerging
(non-IRA) -- PRASX asia, PRLAX latin
Bonds -
VBMFX bonds, FCVSX converts, VIPSX tips
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