Bailouts Can't Stop Trip to Dow 10,000
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Bailouts Can't Stop Trip to Dow 10,000 P.Schuman 03-03-2008
Posted by P.Schuman on March 3, 2008, 1:22 pm
OK - if Warren thinks we are heading to 10,000
then what should we do NOW ?

I thought I had made smart moves in previous years
to spread my funds around - domestics, global, emerging, asia, etc -
With everything linked to the titanic economy of the US,
we are sinking fast... with no lifeboats.

Just to keep my hands off my available cash,
I've been putting it into 5% CD's laddered out 6mos...
Better to make 5%, than to loose -15%

The last time I lost this much equity was the tech bubble.
And as I recently noted, I was not directly into financials (C, BAC, etc)
but almost every single one of my current domestic funds had a stake... and
lost...

NOVEMBER 2007 - that was the time and warning to sell and get out -

--
----------------------------------
"If everything seems to be going well,
you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright



Posted by Ed on March 3, 2008, 1:34 pm
Phil, I'm predicting between 7,000 and 8,000. I'm no Warren Buffett but I
think if it breaks 10,000 it will go to 8,000.


> OK - if Warren thinks we are heading to 10,000
> then what should we do NOW ?
>
> I thought I had made smart moves in previous years
> to spread my funds around - domestics, global, emerging, asia, etc -
> With everything linked to the titanic economy of the US,
> we are sinking fast... with no lifeboats.
>
> Just to keep my hands off my available cash,
> I've been putting it into 5% CD's laddered out 6mos...
> Better to make 5%, than to loose -15%
>
> The last time I lost this much equity was the tech bubble.
> And as I recently noted, I was not directly into financials (C, BAC, etc)
> but almost every single one of my current domestic funds had a stake...
> and lost...
>
> NOVEMBER 2007 - that was the time and warning to sell and get out -
>
> --
> ----------------------------------
> "If everything seems to be going well,
> you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright
>
>



Posted by P.Schuman on March 3, 2008, 2:42 pm

> Phil, I'm predicting between 7,000 and 8,000. I'm no Warren Buffett but I
> think if it breaks 10,000 it will go to 8,000.

I'm seriously thinking about selling large portions of my funds and stocks
across my entire portfolio... and go to the sidelines...

I have about 20 funds across the board, with Fidelity, TRowe, & Vanguard,
with maybe twice that many stocks at Schwab, including some sector ETFs,
and then finally my laddered 5% CDs.

Having lived thru the tech bubble and watching a few large holdings like
Lucent & Cisco
ride down to the cellar - I'm not real thrilled about doing it again,
and then waiting 5 years to be back even....

This time, having no single area of fault (that I own), I feel really
lost....

>> OK - if Warren thinks we are heading to 10,000
>> then what should we do NOW ?
>>
>> I thought I had made smart moves in previous years
>> to spread my funds around - domestics, global, emerging, asia, etc -
>> With everything linked to the titanic economy of the US,
>> we are sinking fast... with no lifeboats.
>>
>> Just to keep my hands off my available cash,
>> I've been putting it into 5% CD's laddered out 6mos...
>> Better to make 5%, than to loose -15%
>>
>> The last time I lost this much equity was the tech bubble.
>> And as I recently noted, I was not directly into financials (C, BAC, etc)
>> but almost every single one of my current domestic funds had a stake...
>> and lost...
>>
>> NOVEMBER 2007 - that was the time and warning to sell and get out -
>>
>> --
>> ----------------------------------
>> "If everything seems to be going well,
>> you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright
>>
>>
>
>



Posted by Ed on March 3, 2008, 2:58 pm
Phil, I'm about 75% in money funds and have been for quite awhile. I don't
see that changing soon.
If it does change, I'll put more into cash.


>
>> Phil, I'm predicting between 7,000 and 8,000. I'm no Warren Buffett but I
>> think if it breaks 10,000 it will go to 8,000.
>
> I'm seriously thinking about selling large portions of my funds and stocks
> across my entire portfolio... and go to the sidelines...
>
> I have about 20 funds across the board, with Fidelity, TRowe, & Vanguard,
> with maybe twice that many stocks at Schwab, including some sector ETFs,
> and then finally my laddered 5% CDs.
>
> Having lived thru the tech bubble and watching a few large holdings like
> Lucent & Cisco
> ride down to the cellar - I'm not real thrilled about doing it again,
> and then waiting 5 years to be back even....
>
> This time, having no single area of fault (that I own), I feel really
> lost....
>
>>> OK - if Warren thinks we are heading to 10,000
>>> then what should we do NOW ?
>>>
>>> I thought I had made smart moves in previous years
>>> to spread my funds around - domestics, global, emerging, asia, etc -
>>> With everything linked to the titanic economy of the US,
>>> we are sinking fast... with no lifeboats.
>>>
>>> Just to keep my hands off my available cash,
>>> I've been putting it into 5% CD's laddered out 6mos...
>>> Better to make 5%, than to loose -15%
>>>
>>> The last time I lost this much equity was the tech bubble.
>>> And as I recently noted, I was not directly into financials (C, BAC,
>>> etc)
>>> but almost every single one of my current domestic funds had a stake...
>>> and lost...
>>>
>>> NOVEMBER 2007 - that was the time and warning to sell and get out -
>>>
>>> --
>>> ----------------------------------
>>> "If everything seems to be going well,
>>> you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
>



Posted by dumbstruck on March 3, 2008, 3:24 pm
So far, you can do pretty well by chasing momentum with Yahoo 1-month
charts. With those you can see each individual day of fund performance
up to about 12 hours ago, so can distinguish dividend moves vs
responses to oil spikes for instance. You can set up charts with all
kinds of indicators vs your existing or potential buy menu.

Mutual funds are last resort for me now, due to the stupid
restrictions on early redemptions, etc. For some reason I still use
them for bond funds which are getting capital gain now due to flight
to defensiveness, even though etfs cover bonds and even laddered ones.
Mutual funds are good for really exotic stuff, like middle east stock
funds and futures arbitrage (see rydexfunds) that are doing quite
well.

ETFs - so great since can bail out automagically at any time (stop
loss orders). Is nobody playing the soft commodities, such as JJA DBA
JJG etc? These have been blowing gold and oil away and may have a more
fundamental basis. ILF looks pretty eager to surf the commod boom, and
is easier to bail out of than flatx for example.

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