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Posted by fxrecommends@gmail.com on June 17, 2009, 4:48 am
The greenback could get use of the correction of the equities market
in this week. Dow has closed down again yesterday at 8504 driving down
below 1.38 this time to reach 1.3750 during the US session before
finding the support which brought it back above 1.39 to trade
currently at 1.3915. The single currency has been underpinned
potentially by the optimistic figures of the Germane ZEW of June which
surged to 44.8 from 35 in May while the current conditions figure
improved to -89 from -93 in May which delighted the pressure on the
single currency. The single currency could make a bottom in the
beginning of last week versus the greenback at 1.38 and making a new
low this week at 1.375 after toping at 1.418 can put a technical
pressure on the single currency which can make 1.4045 harder to be
broken after falling from it forming a lower high by the end of last
week. By God's will, There are no important data waited to move the
currencies market this week while it is important to wait today to see
the US CPI data of May which is expected to ease further to -.9% from
-.7% in April broadly y/y and the core figure to stand at the same
rate of April at 1.9% y/y.
The British pound has joined the single currency the same performance
versus the greenback as it has found support from the stronger than
expected inflation data of May which helped it to bounce up from below
1.63 versus the greenback to retest 1.644 as a resistance. May UK CPI
came up by 2.2% y/y while the market was waiting for just 1.9% and the
monthly figure came up to .6% from .2% in April while the market was
waiting for .3%. by god's will, there is no waited data today from UK
but we wait tomorrow for the release of UK retail sales of May which
are expected to ease monthly to .4% from .9% in April and yearly to -.
1% From 2.6% in April. The British pound was underpinned relatively
recently by April industrial production of UK which increased by .3%
after March declining by .6% and the market was waiting for a another
declining by .1%and the UK manufacturing productions which increased
by .2% in April from a fall by .1% in March and the market was waiting
for a flat reading in April. The British pound has suffered recently
from the political concerns around the Labor party future but it could
bottom out at 1.58 in the beginning of last week but it has faced an
intermediate resistance at 1.644 level as it was the lower high which
has been made on the 4th this month of after its peak of the year at
1.666 in the beginning of this month.
In the beginning of this month, The gold has found the support from
the increases of the commodities and energy prices which came
accompanied with the rise of the market confidence in this gradual
recovery which has been seen halting this week after the decline of NY
fed manufacturing survey of June to -9.41 from -2.12 which encourage
the investors to take profits from the stocks market. The gold has
been underpinned too by the market worries about the US treasuries
future and the increased probabilities of Fed's hiking interest rate
to add attractiveness to them or at least staving off its quantitive
easing steps using the US treasuries which can erode the Fed efforts
to stimulate growth but the massive decline of US total net TICS flows
of April to -53.2b from -23.b came to ensure this risk adding pressure
on the US equities market. The gold eased this week with the easing of
commodities and energy prices this week amid correction in the
equities market. 960$ has formed a resistance in the face of it to
close below it for the second week which put further technical
pressure lead to further declining below 942.8$ reached 925.88$
yesterday and it is trying to test 940$ right now as a resistance.
Best wishes
FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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