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Commodity and Futures - Physical commodity and financial futures markets.
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Posted by on August 18, 2006, 10:06 am
BS"D
RULES AND CAVEATS
Pivot Magic Trading Course
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
http://www.TradingThingys.com
MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Thursday (17 August 2006)
_____________________
Good morning,
Yikes! Another typo yesterday. Musta been Divine providence.
Here's what I wrote. (Notice "the" was meant to be "then", but
my profitic [sic] vision was obviously thinking it would really
be better to write "there", and I went blank. LOL!)
" PERSPECTIVE
...Price Action stalls at the next major S/R level (dotted line).
Following two hearty, white, day candles, one might expect a
brief crossing north and the[re] a bit of a breather to regroup."
No matter how you finish the word, sure got that right!
TGIF!!!
Be well,
**************************
1 = My favorite! A white Bull Dragonfly Anomaly off the Pivot on high
Volume (middle
chart). The Anomaly criterion are met on both the Overnight (bottom
left chart) and
10-Minute tapes.
A = We get pulled in about midway up this large white candle. Nice!
Instantly reduce
initial At Risk. Per our rules, we move the profit-locking stop under
the low of this
candle for well controlled, Undefended At Risk.
2 = 123 continuation "S" at the Close (orange arrow). Can't enter off
the Close on and
"S", need self-confirming set of signals, but advanced traders CAN add
contracts.
(green arrow) Spiky 123 "S", second in the set. Second chance to enter
the fray. Also
large white candle through the Close, so if you took = 1, move the
profit-locking stop
under the Close. Advanced traders can add more contracts here too!
(blue arrow) Another 123 off the Close!
Advanced traders: More contracts.
B = (green arrow) Breakaway gap. Great confirmation. Get ready to
advance the stop.
(black arrow) Price Action has been having some difficulty at the
Historical S/R, the
front lines (dotted line), but a (just barely) large white candle
overruns the dotted
line and the High. Lunch time coming, don't choke the trade. Move
profit-locking stop
under the dotted line (medium aggressive).
C = Large white candle (ABS is very low today. Don't expect much
range.) Rules say to
move the profit-locking stop under the low of the candle.
D = Nasty stall at the R1. Momentum is draining here. High/dotted line
retest is
pending. Volume drops and even turns Doji (black, middle chart). Two
points profit at
risk and our stop is in the way to the most likely objective. Here's
where you jump.
+/-4.0 point
3 = Large 123 formation at the R1. Not enough Volume mid-lunchtime to
even consider an
"S" entry.
TWIN TOWERS
Notice the interesting Twin Towers DVS lesson (middle chart).
X = This one is separated by a single diminutive green bar.
Stall/sag or Reversal should follow.
And it does.
Y = A bit weak, but it is a pair of green DVSs.
Stall/sag or Reversal should follow.
And it does (weakly).
Z = The definitional Doji Twin Towers.
The DVSs themselves are the Stall.
4 = 13:00 Reversal time. And there's a Doji Sandwich, exactly in range
of the R2.
Classy DT Double top (bodies AND wicks) visibe from the 10-Minute
perspective (bottom
center chart). Volume (middle chart) picks up here, first the green
DVS Bull trap is
set, then Bear Volume starts to pick up and the elevator heads down
with the money!
That's the end of the "brief crossing north of the dotted line".
E = Breakaway gap, and we get pulled in.
F = Failed test of MA. Move profit-locking stop above the MA for very
low Undefended
At Risk.
5 = It's funky, but it's a 123 "S through the R1. Second chance entry,
but with the
dotted line is proven, so think Scalp exit rules - Pivot Scalp with PMT
Scalp option
if Bear Momentum prevails. If you're in, advanced traders would add
contracts. (Once
the 123 is well through the R1 already.)
G = Large red candle through the R1.
H = Giant red candle to the dotted line. Move profit-locking stop
above the high of
the candle. It's a DVS (middle chart, no room for a lable on the Volume
chart), so stay
alert to Vital signs. Prepare to execute a Pivot Scalp exit.
J = Large red Bear Dragonfly. A good sign, but not yet through the
Support. Tighten the
stop. Move profit-locking stop above the high of the candle. Eyes
still pealed.
Little, ineffective Bull spinning top and the 123 rips through the
dotted line.
K = Huge (for today's ABS) red Marubozu through the dotted line to the
Close. DVS
(middle chart). Be a drop aggressive and move profit-locking stop
above the dotted
line. Once again watching proven Suppport. This time the Close.
Will the troops rally behind the sumo explosion slamming the invaders
back through the
front line? Stay on alert.
DVS turns into heroic effort as the Bear troops do rally to push the
Price Action back
below yesterday's Close, with a red Bear Dragonfly, no less.
L = Not the super-healthiest second red candle closes below the Close.
Brakes have
clearly been applied and we don't like hanging out in the "green fog"
ambush zone.
Move profit-locking stop above the Close.
6 = The spike here indicates the final skid as Bulls seek traction.
Price Action
signals Reversal (P) at the Close. Advanced traders would have exited
when this
candle moved above the open of the previous red spinning top, KILLING
THE STOP, of
course.
The rest of us, with normal reflexes, got taken out at the stop.
NOTE: With the dotted line so proven, no Reversal
of position was even considered here.
Price Action crosses the dotted line and returns, resting there to EOD.
You might say,
"a bit of a breather to regroup."
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom right chart)
Not a single thing to add to yesterday. Could go either way
(like always! LOL!). Personally rather expecting the BBs
to raise some Bearish Cain, but primarily to return to
breather mode on Friday.
Beware the traps on Friday!
TGIF!
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com
Thursday's PMT Chart:
Http://www.TradingThingys.com/PMTJ/PivotMagic081706.gif
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