If $4/gallon gas is bad, just wait
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Commodity and Futures - Physical commodity and financial futures markets. 

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Subject Author Date
If $4/gallon gas is bad, just wait Ed 05-23-2008
Posted by Ed on May 23, 2008, 10:21 pm
"Judging from the futures markets, shock at the gas pump is
bound to get worse. Maybe much worse.

"Since the beginning of the year, benchmark oil and gasoline
futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange both have increased
by more than a third, but the average retail price of gasoline
in the U.S. has risen by 22%. That bodes ill for consumers..."

Wall Street Journal: http://easyurl.net/BendOver


Posted by Jerry on May 26, 2008, 8:28 am
Unless our congress comes to its' senses and develops an energy plan instead
of simply fighting our oil development, I not only see huge price increases,
but shortages, rationing, many businesses going under, and the economy in
recession.

Jerry
> "Judging from the futures markets, shock at the gas pump is
> bound to get worse. Maybe much worse.
>
> "Since the beginning of the year, benchmark oil and gasoline
> futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange both have increased
> by more than a third, but the average retail price of gasoline
> in the U.S. has risen by 22%. That bodes ill for consumers..."
>
> Wall Street Journal: http://easyurl.net/BendOver
>


Posted by Ted Mittelstaedt on May 26, 2008, 1:00 pm

> Unless our congress comes to its' senses and develops an energy plan
instead
> of simply fighting our oil development, I not only see huge price
increases,
> but shortages, rationing, many businesses going under, and the economy in
> recession.
>

Many energy plans have been developed. The problem is that actual
consumers of gas and oil have not bought off on any of them by changing
their buying habits.

Recent studies have shown that fueling a passenger car costs around 30%
of the total cost of owning it, and furthermore that fueling the same
vehicle with electricity (if it were an electric car) would cost about 1/3
of what fueling it with gasoline costs. And 50% of the US electric power is
coal-generated, and we have another century of coal left, long enough
to get a large number of wind and solar projects online. Even the battery
problem has been solved with the development of large Li-Ion batteries.
It's pretty clear that if the nation's passenger car fleet was switched over
to electric, the remaining part of the fleet that drives long-haul
(interstate
trucking, etc.) would be sustainable with biodiesel.

Hwever, the customers have yet to materialize for electric vehicles. It
was thought that once it was cheaper to fuel cars with electricity that
this would happen, but that time was passed years ago and it still has
not happened.

Your dealing with a large amount of social inertia. And stupidity.

The other problem is that sooner or later we will pull out of Iraq and
when we do, and that money drain ceases and the budget finally gets
balanced, the dollar will begin rising in relation to other countries
currencies, and the cost of oil and gas will fall again - not to the levels
it was, but maybe from $5 a gallon back to $3.50 a gallon - and the
gasoline proponents will then immediately run around telling people
that high gas prices were just a blip, there's still plenty of oil,
yadda yadda yadda, and it is going to take another 10 years for people
to finally see through that as well.

Ted



Posted by Jerry on May 26, 2008, 1:17 pm
I can't see the public not wanting a "good" electric car or a nat gas one.
The GM volt, I believe targeted for something like 2010 is to go 40 miles
with an overnight charge and then use gas. However, the current batteries
have a habit of catching fire. Anyway, if there exists good alternatives to
gasoline passenger cars, IMO these should be mandated and presented to the
public as ways to reduce our dependence on foreign oil - IMO if the plans
were good, the mandate would be accepted. Currently, it's getting difficult
to find a hybrid.

Jerry
>
>> Unless our congress comes to its' senses and develops an energy plan
> instead
>> of simply fighting our oil development, I not only see huge price
> increases,
>> but shortages, rationing, many businesses going under, and the economy in
>> recession.
>>
>
> Many energy plans have been developed. The problem is that actual
> consumers of gas and oil have not bought off on any of them by changing
> their buying habits.
>
> Recent studies have shown that fueling a passenger car costs around 30%
> of the total cost of owning it, and furthermore that fueling the same
> vehicle with electricity (if it were an electric car) would cost about 1/3
> of what fueling it with gasoline costs. And 50% of the US electric power
> is
> coal-generated, and we have another century of coal left, long enough
> to get a large number of wind and solar projects online. Even the battery
> problem has been solved with the development of large Li-Ion batteries.
> It's pretty clear that if the nation's passenger car fleet was switched
> over
> to electric, the remaining part of the fleet that drives long-haul
> (interstate
> trucking, etc.) would be sustainable with biodiesel.
>
> Hwever, the customers have yet to materialize for electric vehicles. It
> was thought that once it was cheaper to fuel cars with electricity that
> this would happen, but that time was passed years ago and it still has
> not happened.
>
> Your dealing with a large amount of social inertia. And stupidity.
>
> The other problem is that sooner or later we will pull out of Iraq and
> when we do, and that money drain ceases and the budget finally gets
> balanced, the dollar will begin rising in relation to other countries
> currencies, and the cost of oil and gas will fall again - not to the
> levels
> it was, but maybe from $5 a gallon back to $3.50 a gallon - and the
> gasoline proponents will then immediately run around telling people
> that high gas prices were just a blip, there's still plenty of oil,
> yadda yadda yadda, and it is going to take another 10 years for people
> to finally see through that as well.
>
> Ted
>
>


Posted by Tim J. on May 26, 2008, 1:40 pm
On Mon, 26 May 2008 10:00:15 -0700, "Ted Mittelstaedt"

>Recent studies have shown that fueling a passenger car costs around 30%
>of the total cost of owning it, and furthermore that fueling the same
>vehicle with electricity (if it were an electric car) would cost about 1/3
>of what fueling it with gasoline costs. And 50% of the US electric power is
>coal-generated, and we have another century of coal left, long enough
>to get a large number of wind and solar projects online. Even the battery
>problem has been solved with the development of large Li-Ion batteries.
>It's pretty clear that if the nation's passenger car fleet was switched over
>to electric, the remaining part of the fleet that drives long-haul
>(interstate
>trucking, etc.) would be sustainable with biodiesel.
>
>Hwever, the customers have yet to materialize for electric vehicles. It
>was thought that once it was cheaper to fuel cars with electricity that
>this would happen, but that time was passed years ago and it still has
>not happened.
>
>Your dealing with a large amount of social inertia. And stupidity.

It's not "social" inertia or stupidity. Your figures do not take into
account the most expensive drawback to a mass changeover to electric
vehicles; the cost of purchasing those vehicles. That's more of an
economic inertia.



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