End of Commodity Bull Market?

Commodity and Futures - Physical commodity and financial futures markets. 

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Subject Author Date End of Commodity Bull Market? scotttrade 03-23-2008
Posted by on March 23, 2008, 2:44 pm I could never be accused of being a great forecaster of markets, but I believe this commodity bull market is dead. When a bull market has a run-up like we have seen in Gold and other commodities over the last few months, that is usually a good sign the end is near. When that move ends violently like it has in many of these markets in the past week, that is an even better sign that bull market is over. Blow off tops always end violently, especially when many analysts are in denial. Remember the Nasdaq boom in the late 1990's? Those stocks were going to the moon, and the analysts still believed in the fundamentals of these companies, even as the prices came crashing down. That bubble was followed by the bubble in real estate, just a few years later. Back in 2006 after the homebuilder stocks peaked, every homebuilder CEO would comment on CNBC that the fundamentals argued strongly for a continued strong housing market, due demographics. Now, in the case of commodities, analysts still argue that we are in an ongoing bull market, due to the global economy. What is the lesson that we need to learn here? Markets are not driven by supply and demand factors, but by psychology and emotion! I strongly suggest that all investors read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds." This book was written in the 19th century, and describes a number of bubbles that occurred in the preceding few hundred years. Now, I am not saying that is a smart thing to start going out and shorting these commodity markets. The volatility will kill you if you do not pick your spots wisely. However, going forward, once these markets settle down a bit, I suspect the easiest money will be made on the short side. scott@kungfutrader.com Similar Threads Posted The "Bull" about the bull market in corn May 31, 2007, 11:06 pm Mad Money Bear & Bull December 5, 2006, 6:28 pm E-Mini Bull Dragonfly Spike Thru 62% Retracement - PIC December 19, 2007, 10:10 am Day Trading Pivot Points - No Bull Recovery - CHART June 11, 2008, 7:26 am Plan your Stock/Commodity Market Trade May 28, 2007, 7:09 am Free Report titled - "Commodity Funds - the New Market Fundamental" and Learn How You can take advantage of them! September 11, 2006, 9:39 pm Get your FREE 295 E-book and 3 Hour DVD on investing in the stock market, property market and internet August 13, 2007, 4:57 am Get your FREE 295 E-book on investing in the stock market, property market and internet June 11, 2007, 8:28 am Get your FREE 295 E-book on investing in the stock market, property market and internet July 10, 2007, 8:18 am Get your FREE 3 hour DVD and learn how to start trading in the stock market, Property market and online. July 15, 2007, 2:39 am