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Commodity and Futures - Physical commodity and financial futures markets.
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Posted by on September 13, 2006, 9:28 am
BS"D
Daytrading Course
Pivot Magic Trading
RULES AND CAVEATS
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening,
get out!"
http://www.TradingThingys.com
MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Tuesday (12 September 2006)
_____________________
Good morning,
Yesterday's PMTJ PERSPECTIVE pointed out:
"... Price Action is still stalled at the
LT SW Channel floor (light blue line)/
Historical S/R (dotted line), which coincide
with the LT Trend channel floor. Support is
rock hard and holding. ... be prepared for
a running of the Bulls."
Sure got that right!
*****************************
Morning session opens slightly gap-up above the Close, hovers at the
High and finally
the Bulls prevail. Price Action crosses R1, retests, and then engages
the "front line"
of the Historical S/R (dotted red line)/LT SW Channel ceiling (light
blue line).
The Resistance at the reinforced LT SW Channel ceiling seemingly has
lost it's
semipermeable nature and now behaves as very strong Support.
X = Although there were not any real signals (possible exception: 123
off dotted red
line, which never proved) to permit entry, a Bull attitude clearly
prevails. Notice
the multiple Bull DVS bursts supporting the elevation of Price Action
(middle chart).
Little doubt about what will happen in the PM!
1 = Failed TTT. Bears just can't cross back under the Support. Call it
a 123. Call it
a 2-bar. No matter what you call it, call it a chance to enter the
promised
continuation of the Bull run!
A = Large white candle. Move profit-locking stop under the low of the
candle. Almost
at "free trade" from the get go!
Uh oh! Twin-towers (middle chart) DVSs. Price Action will stall/sag
now. Unlikely, but
it might even reverse to retest the red dotted line, so, with over 2
points of Unsecured
profits At Risk, a risk-conservative (discretionary) move would be to
scoot
profit-locking stop to "free trade".
Stall/sag follows. No retest.
B = Failed test of MA. Per our stop movement rules, move profit-locking
stop under the
MA. BTW, this is a 123 "S" of the R2. Nervous to enter above R2, but
it is a dandy
opportunity to add contracts.
C = Healthy white Marubozu is the second white candle to close above
R2. Per PMT stop
rules, move profit-locking stop under the R2.
Whenever a Marubozu sumo punches an opening, wonder if the troops will
rally and follow
its aggressive lead. Yes! Volume is pounding and the northern assault
is joined!
D = This far into the move, that must be an exhaustion gap. Watch the
Volume patterns! Prepare to exit.
E = There it is! DVS (middle chart) as Price Action unsuccesfully
stretches toward the
R3 PL. Momentum is exhausted.
About 4 points of Unsecured Profits on the table. Even if we secure all
but 2 points
(using our new 2-point give-back stop rule), the R:R is skewed
improperly. Why risk 2
points for a (slim) chance of less than 1 point of additional profit?
As soon as the DVS revesed and the next candle showed red, Exit Now!
+/-5.75 points
Price Action turned sideways through EOD instead of plunging to retest
the R2.
Does that suggest more Bull action on Wednesday?
PERSPECTIVE
(10-Minute, bottom left chart)
Z = Tuesday's running of the Bulls closed some of the
worrisome old open gaps. Leaves no reason to look back!
(Daily, bottom right chart)
Giant white daily candle (includes Overnight Price Action)
pushed off the LT Trend Channel floor (green channel lines)
and exited the LT SW Channel ceiling (light blue line).
After finally overrunning defenses at what was till now the
front line of battle (dotted red line), the Bulls have lots
of head room to the Trend Channel ceiling.
Only thing that could slow this charge would be the Fed.
Nuts!
Well, it is old Treasury news on Wednesday, so I'm still
planning to wear snowshoes for the northern assault. You?
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com
Tuesday's PMT Chart:
Http://www.TradingThingys.com/PMTJ/PivotMagic091206.gif
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