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Posted by truth-b-told on July 9, 2006, 10:20 am
LC Weekly
Posted by Rick Ratchford on Wednesday, 22 March 2000, at 1:39 p.m.
By exceeding previous weekly top of 73.30 April, this forms a weekly
swing
bottom for last week which is also within the weekly reversal time
frame (one
bar late). This may suggest an inversion of the cycle that could see
the weekly
top due for the end of March rather than the other way around (i.e.
bottom).
Rick
Last week if you recall your dollars were short, not to worry the top
will be
at the end of the month when you can go short again
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2 From: Trader Man - view profile
Date: Wed, Mar 22 2000 12:00 am
Groups: misc.invest.futures
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Gee, we didn't get too deep into the month of March, in which our
infamous
vendor strongly claimed a downmove into the end of the month. Generic
as it
might be to begin with, we didn't even get a week into the
"information",
when suddenly "inversions" strike and turn this into another blown
"information" call.
No reason to call this a "forecast", since no one's money was at stake,
especially the vendor's after his latest attempt at paper trading with
a new
broker fell through. Smart broker.
Don't forget this "weekly" turn has a three week window in which to
operate,
so there will likely be many turns in the next three weeks. Pick any
top or
bottom you want and poof.....you now have a successful "market
expectation".
Excuse me while I double over from laughter.
Maybe some of the "others" who have calculated the 80% success rate can
explain this strange streak of 5 losses out of the last 7 "forecasts"
by the
vendor. Cause we know the vendor sure as hell can't explain it, much
less
admit it even when it's posted by him in his own words on his website.
Thanks, BD, for this post.
TM
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> LC Weekly
> Posted by Rick Ratchford on Wednesday, 22 March 2000, at 1:39 p.m.
> By exceeding previous weekly top of 73.30 April, this forms a weekly swing
> bottom for last week which is also within the weekly reversal time frame
(one
> bar late). This may suggest an inversion of the cycle that could see the
weekly
> top due for the end of March rather than the other way around (i.e.
bottom).
> Rick
> Last week if you recall your dollars were short, not to worry the top will
be
> at the end of the month when you can go short again
Reply
3 From: Timairity - view profile
Date: Thurs, Mar 23 2000 12:00 am
Email: timair...@aol.com (Timairity)
Groups: misc.invest.futures
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"Trader Man" Trader...@hotmail.com wrote:
>Maybe some of the "others" who have calculated the 80% success rate can
>explain this strange streak of 5 losses out of the last 7 "forecasts" by the
>vendor. Cause we know the vendor sure as hell can't explain it, much less
>admit it even when it's posted by him in his own words on his website.
What's happening is that the vendor has deviated from the 80% formula.
That
formula is dependent upon saying a "top or bottom" will occur. Most
folks,
when reading that, _understand_ it to mean that the vendor will be
telling
which (a top, or a bottom) will be occuring, but that's not what is
meant. The
common understanding is contorted to mean that one of the two choices
will
occur, and if either does it is a success, i.e., if a top or bottom
occurs it
is a success, and whichever is not known in advance. NOW, if you pick
the top
or bottom in advance, that 80% will go down by about 1/2, to about 40%.
Getting 2 out of 7 right is about 29%. The seven is probably not yet a
large
enough sample size, so I forecast that, if he continues to pick which
will
occur in advance, the percentage of correct calls will move towards 40%
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4 From: winch_p - view profile
Date: Thurs, Mar 23 2000 12:00 am
Groups: misc.invest.futures
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Fdates is definately not a "get rich quick scheme". It is a "never get
rich
scheme".
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