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Commodity and Futures - Physical commodity and financial futures markets.
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Posted by on July 28, 2006, 10:24 am
BS"D
RULES AND CAVEATS
Pivot Magic Trading Course
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
http://www.TradingThingys.com
MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Thursday (27 July 2006)
_____________________
Good morning,
BBs seem rested now. Read on!
TGIF!!!
***********************
1 = Morning opens with an 2-bar Anomaly off the R1/Historical S/R
fulcrum (dotted plum
line; See Daily, bottom right chart for clarity.)
By the time we get pulled in, it's already easy to claim "second"
healthy red candle
closes below the R1. Place stop above the R1, reducing the Undefended
At Risk.
A little drift, and 10:30 Action Zone tapes a white Bear Dragonfly,
tail gently tapping
to retest R1. And the charge is on!
A = Large red candle. Per our rules move profit-locking stop above
the high of the
candle (or better yet, to "free trade").
B = Large red candle/failed test of MA. PMT stop rules advise to move
profit-locking
stop above the MA. Gigantic DVS (middle chart). Brakes applied,
nearing the Pivot.
Momentum is failing.
2 = Momentum slips in place as Bulls search for traction, finally
finding it with a
white, "almost" Bull Dragonfly. Briskly exit as soon as 62% of the
red candle, = B,
is retraced. +/-2.5 points
This is a Doji Sandwich "P". It is a large signal, with the Reversal
low not
immediately adjacent to the Pivot. The Price Window is therefore too
small for PMT
beginners. It is a clean shot Advanced Pivot Scalp, however.
C = Before we get to move our stops, giant white candle (sudden DVS,
middle chart,
displaying Momentum exhaustion) penetrates the Primary
Objective/R1/dotted plum line.
Exit briskly and get a drop of positive slippage! +/- 3.25 points
3 = DT Multiple tops fail at the R1. That's a "P" and it's close
enough to the R1,
and small enough that it may even have a PMT-acceptable Price Window
open to the
Pivot. Enter with visions of Pivot Scalp exit probabilities.
D = We're in, one more candle and the BBs promptly go to lunch (middle
chart).
Arrggghhhh!
Facing lunchtime drift (and maybe even a tap on R1), we don't want to
choke the trade.
Have a nice ulcer!
E = Finally! Failed test of MA and we can move profit-locking stop
above the MA,
"free trade" plus a bit.
NOTE: Actually, the Bear move broke loose at = X. See the
series of lower tops (10-Minute, bottom center chart, lavender
line) ending with a red Bear Dragonfly in the point of the
Descending Triangle.
F = Failed test of MA. Per our rules, tighten the profit-locking stop.
Move it down
a little, above the MA.
G = Huge DVS (middle chart) generates a monster red candle that easily
overruns the
Pivot. Pivot Scalp exit is hereby passe! Move profit-locking stop
above the Pivot
(more aggressive choice).
Twin tower Volume DVSs (middle chart). Price Action is through the
Pivot, but both
the Twin towers and the tiny spinning top candle imply that the move
will soon dry up.
With our stop securely above the Pivot, we wait to witness the retest.
4 = Pivot retest fails, becoming a 123 "S" (finally reversing off a red
Bear Dragonfly,
BTW). Good place to add contracts!!!
H = Large red candle. DVS (middle chart). Move profit-locking stop
above the high
of the candle.
Second DVS (middle chart). Tape now shows a pair of Twin towers! This
move
obviously ends at the lavender line (ceiling of recently exited LT
Sideways Channel).
Choice One:
Exit when the next high Volume bar shows green
(middle chart).
Choice Two:
Notice that the associated white candle (and the
next one) is (are) rather wimpy, and not yet
really heading north. Hold.
J = The tail of this white Bull Dragonfly (DVS, middle chart) spikes
well below and
pulls back above the lavender line. Those who chose Choice Two without
strong
conviction (or entered at = 4) would exit. +/-8.75 points (from = 3);
or +/- 2.75 points (from = 4)
K = For the real gutsy advanced traders who held on, finally a failed
test of MA and
we can tighten the stop safely! Move profit-locking stop above
MA.
Notice this candle is a perfect Doji spiking through the lavender line.
If Price
Action doesn't promptly resume Bearish, Jump.
L = Second moderately healthy (Red Bull Dragonflies aren't ever really
soooo healthy)
below the HighW. Move profit-locking stop above the lavender line.
M = Volume (middle chart) confirms that this tap on S1 is the EOD
hiccup.
Right on time! Looks pretty wicked on the 10-Minute (bottom center
chart).
Ideal exit? As soon as the tapping candle turned white. +/- 10
points
Anyhow, with all the stalling under the lavender line first, surely one
would get out
before the stop took them out!
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom right chart)
Thursday generated another small (red this time), spinning top,
breather day-candle. Price Action is hovering, sandwiched just
above the LT Sideways Channel ceiling (lavender line) and the
Historical S/R fulcrum level (plum dotted line).
Hard to know, but if the BBs hang out here too long, odds on,
expect a retest of the 50% Retracement level (blue line) before
heading north.
Duh! Dat's da same blurb as yesterday!!!
Watch out for traps and a 50% retest.
TGIF!!!
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com
Thursday's PMT Chart:
Http://www.TradingThingys.com/PMTJ/PivotMagic072706.gif
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