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Commodity and Futures - Physical commodity and financial futures markets.
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Posted by Asher on October 12, 2007, 10:41 am
BS"D
Learn to Read the Tape
Exploit Pit Pivot Points
KISS Daytrading Course
******************************
PIVOT MAGIC JOURNAL - LITE
Good morning,
Wow! An almost 30 point range day running exactly from R3 to S3.
How's that for a perfect PMT day.
Love those Pivot Points!
TGIF!!!
Be well,
=] ;-)>
******************************
BS"D
Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
******************************
E-mini
Thursday October 11, 2007
Following overnight trading, Thursday opens gap-up at the R2.
1 = White Bull Dragonfly behind the Pivot. Volume is confused (middle
chart) and
Resistance at R2 makes this a poor entry option. Wait for a better
signal WITH
Volume confirmation.
2 = Doji Sandwich 123 off R2. Even though it is theoretically
lunchtime, Volume
confirms.
A = Entry candle is also failed test of MA permitting us to advance
initial stop
under MA for controlled At Risk.
B = Exhaustion gap (as it turns out) as sudden DVS (middle chart)
generates large
white candle. DVS warns of exhaustion of Momentum. When the next
candle shows red
we are faced with a discretionary maneuver, but moving stop under the
low of the
candle (mental stop), per our rules, leaves 2 points of Profits in
jeopardy versus
about 1 point of (potential) additional profit to the R3, Primary
Objective.
Not good R:R. Exit Now! +/- 4.75 points
3 = Stong 2-bar (questionable preceding trend, but the Price Window to
R2 and strong
Bear Volume resolve the doubt here).
C = Large red candle. Per PMT stop rules, move profit-locking stop
above high of the
candle.
D = Large red candle/failed test of MA. Move profit-locking stop
above high of the
candle for "free trade" plus.
4 = Nice 2-candle 123 off R2. This is an entry, or an opportunity to
add contracts
if you are already in the trade.
E = Large red candle. Per our stop rules, move profit-locking stop
above the high
of the candle.
F = Large red candle through R1. Scoot profit-locking stop down,
above R1 (aggressive
choice in case of a rebound).
G = DVS-driven (middle chart) giant red candle through the High. Per
our rules, move
profit-locking stop above the High.
Momentum may be exhausted. Keep your eyes open and prepare to exit.
Thinking Pivot
Scalp exit at the Pivot?
NOTE: This is also a 2-candle 123 of R1. Though we might
hesitate to enter into the "green fog", we surely would
want to add contracts here.
H = Even greater DVS (middle chart) slams the Price Action through the
Close and Pivot.
A Pivot Scalp exit (advanced PMTers best choice) would have yielded
positive slippage
+/- 13.75 points
If you instead moved the profit-locking stop aggressively above the
Pivot, you got
taken out on the next candle anyway +/- 12.50 points (negative
slippage)
5 = Powerful 2-bar/DT Double bottom off Pivot. This is a DVS-driven
signal and we
don't trust the longevity of such signals. Let it go.
NOTE: We didn't take the Bear 123 "S" either for the same reason.
Another massive DVS-driven signal (green arrow). Again we let it
go for the same reason.
6 = Now there's an acceptable "S" 123, peaking as a Doji Sandwich!
Entry below the
Mid.
J = Large red candle through the Mid. Move profit-locking stop above
the Mid.
(Personally, I'd bend the rules and advance the stop to "free trade.)
K = DVS (middle chart) and Price Action easily overruns Support at
S1. This single
candle puts the position in violation of the 2-Point Maximum Profit
Giveback rules
(with such large ABS, Average Bar Size, consider a larger Giveback
margin, BTW).
Place mental stop at Giveback level.
L = Exhaustion gap and large red Bear Dragonfly through the Low. Move
profit-locking
stop above the Low and beware of failed Momentum.
M = Large red candle. Single candle causes violation of Giveback
rules. Mental stop
at giveback level, but be wary; it's EOD hiccup Danger Time.
N = Black Volume Bar of Death (middle chart). Exit the instant the
candle pulls back
from S3. +/- 14.75 points
PERSPECTIVE
(60-Minute, bottom left chart)
The unfilled gap (= X) clearly exerted a strong pull today.
The gap is still unfilled, so expecting another attempt on Friday.
(Daily bottom chart)
Price Action first assaulted the LT Trend Channel ceiling (green
channel lines), and then returned with a vengeance to challenge
the smaller LT Trend floor (dashed green channel line).
Both boundaries held, but with the unfilled gap still exerting a
strong pull, expect the Price Action to move to the lower portion
of the channel (below the green dashes) over the next few days.
Friday will be full of traps. BEWARE!
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com
Thursday's PMT Chart:
Http://www.TradingThingys.com/PMTJ/PivotMagic101107.gif
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