oil stocks-recession

Financial Planning - Financial planning in general. (Moderated) 

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Subject Author Date oil stocks-recession M.Balarama 01-14-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession John A. Weeks I... 01-14-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession Elle 01-14-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession Andrew Koenig 01-16-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession Elle 01-16-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession rick++ 01-14-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession dumbstruck 01-14-2008  Re: oil stocks-recession pallav 01-15-2008
Posted by M.Balarama on January 14, 2008, 11:37 am if there is a recession/depression--How to oil stocks do? people still have to drive cars etc. Posted by John A. Weeks III on January 14, 2008, 12:00 pm > if there is a recession/depression--How to oil stocks do? > people still have to drive cars etc. Hard to tell. With a recession, folks may have less money, so they may drive less. But then again, the oil companies might be more profitable at some level of production less than what they are running at today. Factories normally have some sweet spot as far as output and profits. If you run lower than that, or higher than that, your profits may fall. -john- -- ====================================================================== John A. Weeks III           612-720-2854            john@johnweeks.com Newave Communications                         http://www.johnweeks.com ====================================================================== Posted by Elle on January 14, 2008, 12:52 pm This group is about sound financial planning. Diversify. That means holding some oil stocks but many other industries' stocks, and for the long run. Then know that slow and easy wins the race. Remember that the upside of the recession in the 1970s was that dividends (and dividends did not take much, if any, of a hit then) were reinvested at bargain prices, and folks enjoyed exponential growth when the "recessionary years" ended. If you're investing for the short run, hold no stocks. Go to misc.invest.stocks or whatever group for specific stock recommendations. > if there is a recession/depression--How to oil stocks do? > people still have to drive cars etc. Posted by Andrew Koenig on January 16, 2008, 9:43 am > Remember that the upside of the recession in the 1970s was that dividends > (and dividends did not take much, if any, of a hit then) were reinvested > at bargain prices, and folks enjoyed exponential growth when the > "recessionary years" ended. Also, you might want to look for an article on vanguard.com dated January 10 called "Recession and the Stock Market: Timing is Everything," which notes that the S&P 500 posted positive returns during five out of the last nine recessions. Posted by Elle on January 16, 2008, 11:43 am > you might want to look for an article on vanguard.com > dated January 10 called "Recession and the Stock Market: > Timing is Everything," which notes that the S&P 500 posted > positive returns during five out of the last nine > recessions. Nice article, found quickly by typing "recession" into the Vanguard site's search engine. I too have been watching for articles that discuss historical recessions. This is a nice summary of the nine said to have occurred since 1953. Given that four of the recessions posted negative S&P 500 returns, I continue to value the advice to keep reinvesting dividends, so as to pick up stocks at bargain prices. One caveat to me remains that major banks are in "significant" trouble. "Significant" being debatable. I am responding largely to the dividend cuts (and other actions taken) at Citi and WaMu. This is the first time in at least 18 years since either failed to raise its dividend at least annually, if yahoo's records are reliable. I do not know how much to read into this. Either way, being a long term investor, the rules are to stay cool; maybe sell off any positions seeming to be wildly overpriced and buy other stocks cheap; take long term capital losses and buy back later; and reinvest dividends where one can.