Re: When Your Broker Tries to Sell You on a Complicated Mathematical Model for Investing...

Financial Planning - Financial planning in general. (Moderated) 

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Re: When Your Broker Tries to Sell You on a Complicated Mathematical Model for Investing... dapperdobbs 03-20-2008
Posted by dapperdobbs on March 20, 2008, 5:21 am
You're drifting over to my point of view! I see you!:-)

I'm still waiting for you to say "30 to 1 leverage on those credit
derivatives!" C'mon ... I know you can say it!:-) Try it once where
nobody can hear you! It won't hurt!

I do not disagree with you on what you wrote below - a bubble tends to
catch an awful lot of people up in it's frenzy. There were loans made
to those who could not, it turns out, afford them. No doubt some were
really hurt by it - a young married couple, afraid to miss out on ever
owning a home, and a lender believing house prices would only go
higher bending over backwards to get them in. That makes me sad and
angry - I'm not sure at whom - but basically it's at those who were in
the housing market only seeking windfall profits.

[trim]
> I continue to believe it was a group effort in greed, from
> little guy who did not have enough for a down payment yet
> bought anyway; to flip-pers with their ridiculous get-rich
> quick schemes; to those who sold credit derivatives without
> understanding the underlying risk; to banking practices that
> did not reveal the extent of exposure to subprime mortgages.
> "Only sell what you understand, and if you have to wave your
> hands to explain it to an investor, you shouldn't be selling
> it to him/her." Toss in a government that maybe should have
> done something to regulate lending standards as it lowered
> interest rates.
>
> I am not someone who like the concept of "dispersion of
> blame," but here it seems at least a bit appropriate.

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Posted by Elle on March 20, 2008, 11:39 am
> I'm still waiting for you to say "30 to 1 leverage on
> those credit
> derivatives!" C'mon ... I know you can say it!:-)

Well sure. :-) I absolutely agree with your point that
leveraging has aggravated the problem "greatly." Though I
put the last word in quotation marks because it is hard to
say anything with precision here, regarding the precise
effects of the leveraging, and relative to the period around
1991, and just as the August 07 Fidelity report that you
cited points out.

The magnitudes of which you (and Fidelity's paper, etc.)
speak and other reports have me worried that this could be a
mother of a recession. Hopefully I will be eating my words
within a year. Whence I hope younger folks here and myself
will have under our belts one more period of serious market
correction to temper our thoughts on long term investing.

I do like that my IRA's reinvested dividends pick up more
shares at bargain prices.

> There were loans made
> to those who could not, it turns out, afford them.
snip for brevity but all points noted

I think there's also a nasty myth going around, promoted by
our government among others, that owning a home should be
everyone's goal. As has been much discussed here, renting is
often the better financial choice. Renting does not
necessarily mean having less square feet.

Still, I put a lot of blame on those calling themselves
"mathematicians" who participate in the financial industry.
Unfortunately I suspect too often they do so thinking they
can get rich quick through manipulation of numbers, when
studies attest otherwise.

--------------------------------------
Misc.invest.financial-plan is a moderated newsgroup where Moderators strive
to keep the conversations on-topic for financial planning. Other posting
guidelines include a request for brevity and another for trimming posts to
which we respond. For all of the other tips and suggestions, see "FROM THE
MODERATORS: Posting to misc.invest.financial-plan", a weekly post now on the
Newsgroup.


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