Finding a great investment manager

Financial Planning - Financial planning in general. (Moderated) 

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Subject Author Date
Finding a great investment manager Igor Chudov 05-27-2009
Posted by Igor Chudov on May 27, 2009, 6:09 pm
It has been said, and backed up by research, that it is impossible to
find a manager who would 1) outperform the benchmarks in the long run,
possibly not "consistently", 2) Will not take on unwarranted risk and
recognize market follies enough to not participate in them.

I would like to suspend this belief in such an impossibility. Let's
assume, even if this is not true, that there are such managers and
then can be identified.

Under this lofty assumption, how would one go about finding such a
manager? What sorts of people would you look for, where, how would you
eliminate those that look like they could do (1) but lose everything
due to failing on (2)?

Essentially, the dilemma of a little investor, like myself, is that a
good manager may be better than me at managing money, but there is
almost inevitably an agency problem (conflict of interest) of one sort
or another. This complicates search for a "great manager". Plus, some
would not take small amounts of money.

I would like to ask, if possible, to not argue whether a manager like
this can be found. I wanted this thread to discuss how to find one,
not whether it is possible.

My own feeling about the question posed, is that it is very difficult
to find a good manager that would satisfy both conditions and would
work under an acceptable reward structure (and would take a relatively
small amount to manage).

It may be easier to identify certain red flags to be avoided, such as
1) investments in anything exotic taking up a large part of a
portfolio, 2) excessive self promotion, 3) too much secrecy, 4) abuse
of leverage.

i


Posted by PeterL on May 27, 2009, 7:39 pm
> It has been said, and backed up by research, that it is impossible to
> find a manager who would 1) outperform the benchmarks in the long run,
> possibly not "consistently", 2) Will not take on unwarranted risk and
> recognize market follies enough to not participate in them.
>
> I would like to suspend this belief in such an impossibility. Let's
> assume, even if this is not true, that there are such managers and
> then can be identified.
>
> Under this lofty assumption, how would one go about finding such a
> manager? What sorts of people would you look for, where, how would you
> eliminate those that look like they could do (1) but lose everything
> due to failing on (2)?
>
> Essentially, the dilemma of a little investor, like myself, is that a
> good manager may be better than me at managing money, but there is
> almost inevitably an agency problem (conflict of interest) of one sort
> or another. This complicates search for a "great manager". Plus, some
> would not take small amounts of money.
>
> I would like to ask, if possible, to not argue whether a manager like
> this can be found. I wanted this thread to discuss how to find one,
> not whether it is possible.
>
> My own feeling about the question posed, is that it is very difficult
> to find a good manager that would satisfy both conditions and would
> work under an acceptable reward structure (and would take a relatively
> small amount to manage).
>
> It may be easier to identify certain red flags to be avoided, such as
> 1) investments in anything exotic taking up a large part of a
> portfolio, 2) excessive self promotion, 3) too much secrecy, 4) abuse
> of leverage.
>
> i

Sure it is possible and indeed those managers do exist. You need to
understand how the manager invests. For example, is this person a
value driver manager? How does he/she decide what stocks or MF's to
invest in. I presonally would not just give my money to someone to
invest. I would allow someone to buy and sell from my acct., so I
have control at all times. And of course you need to look at the
track record of the manager.

Generally fee only managers would take about 1% of your portfolio.
Anything too high or too low would be a red flag.


Posted by HW \"Skip\" Weldon on May 29, 2009, 7:03 pm

>Generally fee only managers would take about 1% of your portfolio.
>Anything too high or too low would be a red flag.

Two points to consider:

1. The 1% fee is in addition to other costs like the mutual fund's
expenses.

2. Assuming two similar investment portfolios, an 8% compounded
return and $100,000 invested for 25 years, the 1% annual fee (paid to
the fee-only manager) works out to be approximately $142,100.


-HW "Skip" Weldon
Columbia, SC


Posted by Andrew Koenig on May 28, 2009, 1:35 pm

> It has been said, and backed up by research, that it is impossible to
> find a manager who would 1) outperform the benchmarks in the long run,
> possibly not "consistently", 2) Will not take on unwarranted risk and
> recognize market follies enough to not participate in them.

> I would like to suspend this belief in such an impossibility. Let's
> assume, even if this is not true, that there are such managers and
> then can be identified.

> Under this lofty assumption, how would one go about finding such a
> manager?

Easy: Wait 20 years, see which manager has the best performance over that
time, and then turn back the clock and invest with that manager.

What's that you say? There's no way to turn back the clock? Easy: Just
suspend your belief in such an impossibility.


Posted by Default User on May 28, 2009, 3:01 pm
Andrew Koenig wrote:


> > I would like to suspend this belief in such an impossibility. Let's
> > assume, even if this is not true, that there are such managers and
> > then can be identified.
>
> > Under this lofty assumption, how would one go about finding such a
> > manager?
>
> Easy: Wait 20 years, see which manager has the best performance over
> that time, and then turn back the clock and invest with that manager.

If it were possible to accurately locate such a manager in "real time",
he or she would be so swamped with very large accounts that a small
portfolio would be unlikely to get a look. As it is, the big pension
funds and such frequently chase the "hot manager" from the past couple
years (often to their dismay).



Brian

--
Day 115 of the "no grouchy usenet posts" project


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