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Posted by Don on February 16, 2008, 5:53 pm
> Your observation is right. Risk goes with reward. In this particular
> case, there is a theory called "interest rate parity" easy to google
> and find good definitions. It basically claims that if I buy a foreign
> CD at 10% instead of a US CD at 5%, (one year), that is a sign the
> market is pricing the foreign currency to drop by 5% against the dollar
> during that time. You are actually bet against the 'big boys' to buy
> such a CD thinking exchange rates are doing something else.
> I was going to counter your 'lose your shirt' remark, until I reread
> OPs choice of Brazil as one of the countries. The currency risk there
> may very well be at that level. (I am no expert on annual exchange rate
> volatility, but that is what OP should study to better understand his
> risk.
This scenario is also an excellent example of the fact someone seeking
financial advice faces two kinds of risk. The first is the risk of the
investment product itself. The second is the risk of buying a product,
maybe itself risky, maybe not, from a person or organization that sells
the product for too much or skims off a lot of the gain -- in this case
5% of an already questionable 12%!
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