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Posted by on February 16, 2008, 5:18 pm
> Don wrote:
> > High yield and high risk go together, like a hand and glove, like
> > breathing in and breathing out.
> > A lot of people as the years go by are quick to believe they have at
> > last found an exception to this fundamental financial principle, but
> > over and over again reality bites. That doesn't mean that nobody can
> > make a killing in foreign currencies and other risky investments. It
> > means that the chances of doing so are very small and the chances of
> > losing your shirt are very large.
>
> Your observation is right. Risk goes with reward. In this particular
> case, there is a theory called "interest rate parity" easy to google and
> find good definitions. It basically claims that if I buy a foreign CD at
> 10% instead of a US CD at 5%, (one year), that is a sign the market is
> pricing the foreign currency to drop by 5% against the dollar during
> that time. You are actually bet against the 'big boys' to buy such a CD
> thinking exchange rates are doing something else.
You could follow your own advice, Google "uncovered interest parity",
and learn that empirically most of the evidence is *against* this
theory. The second paragraph of my earlier reply summarizes the
evidence. I also posted a message earlier in this newsgroup about
"emerging market bond funds", citing a paper that found they can play
a role in individual investor portfolios.
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